Ontario wheat prices reached 52-week highs as the market incorporates a risk premium due to the uncertainty in production. Statistics Canada said Ontario farmers plan to increase corn acres by 5.4 per cent this spring; soybean acres will be similar to last year.

The world is no longer comfortable with past stock levels of grains and oilseeds. The ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and China’s heightened frustration over Taiwan have major importers increasing stocks for food security.

Quick look:

Soybeans: Ending stocks have been at historic lows in Ontario.

Corn: Ethanol plant bids have hit three-year highs.

Wheat: Ontario winter wheat planting in 2025 was down versus the previous year.

Soybeans

Ontario farmers plan to seed 2.9 million acres of soybeans this spring, unchanged from last year, according to Statistics Canada. Using an average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre, production has the potential to come in at four million tonnes, up from the 2025 output of 3.6 million tonnes. The year-over-year increase in production comes on the heels of historically low ending stocks in Ontario.

Commercial stocks in Ontario are declining, and the market will function to encourage imports moving forward. Bids from the domestic crusher in Ontario need to be $0.50-0.75 per bushel to higher to attract supplies from south of the border. Domestic crush margins are at three-year highs, so there is breathing room for stronger cash bids.

On the world market, Brazil’s soybean harvest progress has moved past the halfway mark. Argentine farmers will begin harvest in the latter half of March and move into high gear during April. Brazilian soybean offers in export position are US$50 per tonne discount to U.S. origin.

U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean acres by four to five per cent this spring, according to the USDA. That increase may have influenced Ontario farmers rotational plans.

Soybean futures reached 18-month highs during the first week of March. While the futures markets surged, basis levels deteriorated. This was largely fund buying. As of March 10, we estimated that the non-commercial position in the soybean futures was near 250,000 contracts, which is a historical high. When the speculative trade is this large, the market tends to decrease.

This week, we’re advising farmers to increase sales by 10 per cent, bringing total sales to 80 per cent for the 2025 production. We’ll save the final 20 per cent increment until the upcoming crop is more certain. When we see Canadian imports from south of the border increase, this will be the top in the Ontario soybean market.

Corn

Ontario farmers plan to plant 2.3 million acres of corn this spring, Statistics Canada estimated. This is up from 2.2 million in 2025. Using a traditional abandonment rate and an average yield of 174.2 bushels per acre, production has potential to reach 10 million tonnes, up from the 2025 crop of 9.5 million tonnes. The higher corn acres come at the expense of lower canola and spring wheat acres. Farmers are clearly responding to market signals.

Bids from ethanol processors are reaching three-year highs. Buying interest from feedlots and elevators sourcing for the export market have not increased to the same extent. To reiterate from our previous issue, Ontario corn ending stocks are expected to drop to historical lows at the end of the 2025-26 crop year. The market is functioning to ration demand by trading at a premium to the world market.

Canadian crop year-to-date corn exports for the week ending March 1 were 398,100 tonnes, down from last year’s number of 1.2 million tonnes. Northern European feed grain markets continue to be saturated with domestic wheat supplies.

Despite the rally in the corn futures market, export offers have only risen by US$2-4 per tonne. U.S. corn FOB the Gulf was quoted at US$225 per tonne while Brazilian corn was valued at US$226 per tonne FOB Paranagua.

The seeding of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is moving into the final stages. Total Brazilian corn production is expected to finish in the range of 130 million-132 million tonnes, down from the 2025 output of 136 million tonnes. Conditions are favourable in Brazil, but we’re still expecting drier conditions to develop due to ‘La Nina’. Argentine farmers have started harvesting their record corn crop, which is expected to reach 53 million tonnes, up from last year’s output of 50 million tonnes.

U.S. farmers are expected to seed 94 million acres of corn this spring, down from 98.8 million last year. Missouri, Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana are experiencing drier conditions heading into the spring seeding period. This is favourable for seeding, but timely rains will be needed or the corn market is moving significantly higher. The world cannot afford a problem with the U.S. corn crop.

This week, we’re advising farmers to increase sales by 10 per cent bringing total sales to 80 per cent for the 2025 production.

Wheat

Ontario farmers planted 1.12 million acres of winter wheat last fall, down 64,000 acres from the fall of 2024. We continue to project an Ontario winter wheat crop of 2.5 million tonnes, compared to last year’s output of 2.9 million tonnes.

Ontario farmers are only expected to plant 43,000 acres of spring wheat versus 62,800 acres last year. This is a modern-day historical low.

U.S. hard red winter wheat was offered at US$281 per tonne FOB the Gulf on Friday, while U.S. soft red winter was quoted at US$263 per tonne. French soft wheat was offered at US$245 per tonne FOB Rouen. Russian 12.5 per cent protein was quoted at US$250 per tonne FOB the Black Sea. Ontario soft red winter was quoted at US$265 per tonne FOB St Lawrence port.

Conditions in Russia have improved over the past month, and the crop will come out of dormancy in fair condition. We’re factoring in a minor year-over-year decrease in Russian and Ukrainian wheat production. The ongoing war will be a significant factor determining export potential.

In Europe, the winter wheat crop in the northern regions has come out of dormancy earlier than normal due to warmer temperatures. Conditions are drier in parts of Germany, Poland, Hungary and Czechia. European wheat production will be down from last year, but it’s hard to put a number on the crop size at this time.

The winter wheat crop in the U.S. southern Plains needs rain. There are major concerns in Oklahoma, Texas and southern regions of Kansas. If the seasonal April rains do not materialize, there is a serious problem with the hard red winter wheat.

This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent bringing total wheat sales to 80-90 per cent. We need to be selling into this recent strength. The U.S. winter wheat crop will be down from last year, but once harvest begins the market will come under pressure.

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Feed barley in Lethbridge was selling for C$295 to C$300 per tonne for May and June delivery, up C$5 from two weeks earlier, said Brandon Motz, owner and manager of CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta. He also heard offers of up to C$310/tonne. Meanwhile, feed wheat was selling at C$305 to C$310/tonne.

“There still seems to be some very aggressive bids (for feed barley) from the line companies,” Motz said. “Actual feedlot demand is below average this time of year, but there are a lot of moving factors.”

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

As barley and wheat move through the markets, rising corn prices have weakened demand for the crop.

“Corn is trickling into the market. There is some feeding corn. Corn has always kind of been in the background, but there’s not a lot of volume. Corn prices have rallied up too. So they’ve stayed out of reach,” Motz said.

Rising fuel prices, brought on by the war in Iran, have tightened margins for grain companies and railways, resulting in surcharges and higher freight rates. Motz added that they are affecting growers’ bottom lines as well.

“That’s quite a jump if you didn’t have your spring needs already booked,” he said. “It’s definitely something to be watched and unfortunately not a lot can be done to manage that risk. The bid offer spread has to be adjusted to compensate for fuel prices.”

Where grain prices could go is hard to determine, but Motz believes there will be little movement in the near term.

“It’s safe to assume that prices will remain in this area for the next week at least. There’s nothing to suggest that anything should change,” he said. “But at the same time, this market has been one tweet way from dramatic correction on either side … We need some global shifts to take place before any of the markets come off their highs at this point.”

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported that delivered feed barley prices in Alberta ranged from C$5.01 to C$6.75 per bushel on April 6, steady from the week before. In Saskatchewan, they were also steady, ranging from C$5.12 to C$5.45/bu. In Manitoba, prices were up 25 cents at C$4.77 to C$5/bu.

Feed wheat prices in Alberta were from C$6.18 to C$8.38/bu., down three cents. Manitoba’s feed wheat price was C$6.45, up 13 cents, while Saskatchewan’s was steady at C$7.30/bu.

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Ontario wheat prices reached 52-week highs as the market incorporated a risk premium due to the uncertainty in production. Ontario farmers plan to increase corn acres by 5.4 per cent this spring; soybean acres will be similar to last year, according to Statistics Canada.

Quick look:

• Soybeans: When U.S. imports increase, that will indicate the top of the market for Ontario soybeans.
• Corn: Corn acreage in 2026 in Ontario is expected to rise slightly.
• Wheat: There are major concerns about the winter wheat crop in the southern U.S. Plains.

The world is no longer comfortable with past stocks levels of grains and oilseeds. The ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict, escalating tensions in the Middle East and China’s heightened frustration over Taiwan have major importers increasing stocks for food security.

Soybeans

StatCan said Ontario farmers plan to plant 2.9 million acres of soybeans this spring, unchanged from last year. Using an average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre, production has potential to come in at four million tonnes, up from the 2025 output of 3.6 million tonnes. The year-over-year increase in production comes on the heels of historically low ending stocks in Ontario.

Commercial stocks in Ontario are declining and the market will function to encourage imports moving forward. Bids from the domestic crusher in Ontario need to be $0.50-$0.75/bu. or higher to attract supplies from south of the border. Domestic crush margins are at three-year highs so there is breathing room for stronger cash bids.

On the world market, Brazil’s soybean harvest progress has passed the halfway mark. Argentine farmers will begin harvest in the latter half of March and move into high gear during April. Brazilian soybean offers in export position are US$50/tonne discount to U.S. origin.

U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean acres by four to five per cent this spring, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The increase in U.S. soybean acres may have influenced Ontario farmers’ rotational plans.

Soybean futures reached 18-month highs during the first week of March. While the futures markets surged, basis levels deteriorated. This was largely fund buying. As of March 10, we estimated the non-commercial position in soybean futures was near 250,000 contracts — a historical high. When the speculative trade is this large, the market tends to decrease.

This week, we’re advising farmers to increase sales by 10 per cent, bringing total sales to 80 per cent for 2025 production. We’ll save the final 20 per cent increment until the upcoming crop is more certain. Secondly, when we see Canadian imports from south of the border increase, this will be the top in the Ontario soybean market.

Corn

Ontario farmers plan to plant 2.3 million acres of corn this spring, StatCan forecast, up from 2.2 million in 2025. Using a traditional abandonment rate and an average yield of 174.2 bu./ac., production has potential to reach 10 million tonnes, up from the 2025 crop of 9.5 million. The higher corn acres come at the expense of lower canola and spring wheat acres. Farmers are clearly responding to market signals.

Bids from ethanol processors are reaching three-year highs. Buying interest from feedlots and elevators sourcing for the export market have not increased to the same extent. To reiterate from our previous issue, Ontario corn ending stocks are expected to drop to historical lows at the end of the 2025-26 crop year. The market is functioning to ration demand by trading at a premium to the world market.

Canadian crop year-to-date corn exports for the week ending March 1 were 398,100 tonnes, down from last year’s number of 1.2 million tonnes. Northern European feed grain markets continue to be saturated with domestic wheat supplies.

Despite the rally in corn futures, export offers have only risen by US$2-$4/tonne. U.S. corn, f.o.b. the Gulf, was quoted at US$225/tonne while Brazilian corn was valued at US$226/tonne, f.o.b. Paranagua.

The seeding of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is moving into the final stages. Total Brazilian corn production is expected to finish in the range of 130 million-132 million tonnes, down from the 2025 output of 136 million. Conditions are favourable in Brazil but we’re still expecting drier conditions to develop due to La Niña. Argentine farmers have started harvesting their record corn crop, which is expected to reach 53 million tonnes, up from last year’s output of 50 million tonnes.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant 94 million acres of corn this spring, down from 98.8 million last year. Missouri, Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana are experiencing drier conditions heading into the spring planting period. This is favourable for planting but timely rains will be needed or the corn market is moving significantly higher. The world cannot afford a problem with the U.S. corn crop.

This week, we’re advising farmers to increase sales by 10 per cent, bringing total sales to 80 per cent for 2025 production.

Wheat

Ontario farmers seeded 1.12 million acres of winter wheat last fall, down 64,000 acres from the fall of 2024. We continue to project an Ontario winter wheat crop of 2.5 million tonnes, down from last year’s output of 2.9 million.

Ontario farmers are only expected to seed 43,000 acres of spring wheat, down from 62,800 acres last year. This is a modern-day historical low.

U.S. hard red winter wheat was offered at US$281/tonne f.o.b. the Gulf on March 13, while U.S. soft red winter was quoted at US$263/tonne. French soft wheat was offered at US$245/cwt. f.o.b. Rouen. Russian 12.5 per cent protein was quoted at US$250/tonne f.o.b. the Black Sea. Ontario soft red winter was quoted at US$265/tonne f.o.b. the St. Lawrence port.

Conditions in Russia have improved over the past month and the crop will come out of dormancy in fair condition. We’re factoring in a minor year-over-year decrease in Russian and Ukrainian wheat production. The ongoing war will be a significant factor determining export potential.

In Europe, the winter wheat crop in northern regions has come out of dormancy earlier than normal due to warmer temperatures. Conditions are drier in parts of Germany, Poland, Hungary and Czechia. European wheat production will be down from last year but it’s hard to put a number on the crop size at this time.

The winter wheat crop in the U.S. southern Plains needs rain. There are major concerns in Oklahoma, Texas and southern regions of Kansas. If seasonal April rains do not materialize, there is a serious problem with the hard red winter wheat.

This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent, bringing total wheat sales to 80-90 per cent. We need to be selling into this recent strength. The U.S. winter wheat crop will be down from last year but once harvest begins, the market will come under pressure.

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JBS workers strike in Colorado

Beef packers have scaled back production in recent weeks and traders are monitoring developments at a large JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colo., where workers have gone on strike.

The dispute reduces U.S. beef production capacity at a time when consumers face record prices for hamburgers and steaks and Trump has struggled to make good on a pledge to cool costs.

The workers have launched a two-week strike and will remain on the picket lines until JBS negotiates fairly with workers, according to the union.

Beef prices soared after a years-long drought burned up grazing lands and drove ranchers to slash their herds to the lowest level in 75 years.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange April live cattle settled 2.35 cents higher at 233.25 cents per pound (USD). April feeders finished up 12.30 cents at 355.45 cents per pound.

Beef packer margins rose to US$57.10 per head on Monday, up from gains of $45.20 on Friday, and losses of $117.95 a week ago, according to livestock marketing advisory service HedgersEdge.

CME lean hog futures ended up 0.05 cents at 93.50 cents per pound.

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Corn: Tight stocks should mean good Ontario demand over the summer.

Soybeans: Export and domestic demand running the same as 2024-25, despite lower stocks.

Wheat: About 40 per cent of U.S. winter wheat is under drought conditions.

Ontario on-farm corn, soybeans and wheat stocks will drop to historically low levels at the end of the 2025-26 crop year. There is no cushion in Ontario if there is a crop problem.

The grain and oilseed markets are incorporating a risk premium due to the uncertainty in production. Ontario has received below-normal precipitation over the past 30 days. On March 5, Statistics Canada will release its first acreage estimate for 2026.

Canada, the U.S. and most of the developed world appear to be heading into a major inflationary period over the next couple of years. On a macro level, this is bullish for grain and oilseed markets. The world is no longer comfortable with past levels of ending stocks. Food security will be more of an issue given fresh trade alliances and deglobalization. If there are one or two problem areas in the Northern Hemisphere during the 2026 growing season, we are in for significantly higher prices. Fertilizer prices are back up to historical highs. Keep all this in mind as you read the following analysis.

Soybeans

Ontario farmers harvested 3.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025, down from the 2024 output of 4.3 million tonnes. Canadian crop year-to-date soybean exports for the week ending Feb. 15 were 3.5 million tonnes, up 100,000 tonnes from last year. Crop year-to-date domestic disappearance for the week, at 928,400 tonnes, was down 100,000 tonnes from the year-ago usage. Despite the year-over-year decrease in production, export and domestic demand is running at similar levels to last year. The Ontario domestic market needs to trade high enough to curb exports and to attract imports in the latter part of the crop year.

Finally, the Ontario soybean market needs to strengthen to encourage farmers to increase acreage this spring. At this stage, Ontario soybean prices need to move $1/bu. higher to pull acres away from corn.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant 85 million acres of soybeans this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This is up from the 2025 planted area of 81.2 million. U.S. production has the potential to reach 121 million tonnes, up from last year’s crop of 116 million tonnes. Despite the increase in production, the carryout for 2026-27 will finish near 9.7 million tonnes, relatively unchanged from 2025-26 campaign due to an increase on domestic and export demand. There are some drier pockets developing in the U.S. Midwest and northern Plains moving into the spring period. The market will be extremely sensitive to yield and crop development.

U.S. soybeans continue to trade at a premium to South American origin as the Brazilian harvest moves into the final stages. The Argentine soybean crop will be harvested during March and April.

We’ve advised farmers to be 70 per cent sold on their 2025 soybean production. We continue to have a bullish outlook for the soybean market.

Corn

Ontario corn prices have been percolating higher. Certain ethanol processors are well covered for their nearby requirements but there appears to be significant open demand for May through August. We have a bullish outlook for the energy complex which will directly spill over into the corn market. Ethanol processors will have a hard time sourcing adequate supplies late in the crop year, given the tighter stocks situation. On a side note, feedlot operators also need to have full coverage through September. Higher fertilizer prices may hinder corn acreage this spring. New-crop prices will function to encourage production moving forward.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant 94 million acres of corn this spring, down from the 2025 area of 98.8 million, according to USDA. Using a trend yield, U.S. production has potential to finish near 400 million tonnes, down from the 2025 crop of 432 million tonnes. Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri and Illinois are contending with drier conditions heading into spring.

Brazil’s second corn crop was about 50 per cent planted at the end of February. Conditions have been favourable for early crop development. Traders are concerned about drier conditions during April due to La Niña. The Argentine corn harvest will move into high gear during March. We’re expecting the corn market to develop a significant risk premium in late March and April.

Europe is the main destination for Ontario corn exports in a normal year. Currently, the Ontario corn market is premium to U.S. and French offers keeping Ontario corn at bay. Ontario corn prices will need to maintain a premium over the world market.

This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent of their 2025 production bringing total sales to 70 per cent. Ingredion Cardinal Corn bids were hovering at $7 for May delivery. The market is showing a carrying charge which tells farmers to sell now for delivery in May or June.

Wheat

The Ontario winter wheat crop for the 2026 harvest is expected to come in at 2.5 million tonnes, down from the 2025 crop of 2.9 million tonnes. This lower production estimate comes on the heels of a historically tight carryout. Flour millers appear to have open demand for May through July. Currently, Ontario export offers are premium to French values f.o.b. Rouen and U.S. prices f.o.b. the Gulf.

Approximately 40 per cent of the U.S. winter wheat region is contending with some level of drought. The U.S. hard red winter crop in Texas, Oklahoma and parts of Kansas will need timely rains during March and April to sustain yield potential.

In Russia and Ukraine, the ongoing war has also resulted in a cash market risk premium. The latest weapons developments in Ukraine have enhanced the ability to strike Russian grain and energy infrastructure. These Ukrainian-manufactured weapons are not under Western restrictions. Secondly, there are pockets in the Russian Southern District, Volga District and North Caucasus District that have received below-normal precipitation over the past couple of months.

In Germany and Poland, the winter wheat lacked snow cover during a recent cold snap. There is potential for larger than normal winterkill. These regions have also received below-normal precipitation. Romania is also on the drier side while conditions in France have improved.

Analysts are factoring in a year-over-year decrease in production in the U.S., Russia, Europe and Canada. This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent of their 2025 production, bringing sales to 60-70 per cent for milling and feed wheat.

The post Low Ontario on-farm stocks could shape spring and summer markets appeared first on Farmtario.

Terry Reilly, an independent analyst, said soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade is the commodity most closely following the lead of crude oil, with the latter almost touching US$120 per barrel earlier this week. The May soyoil contract closed at 67.16 U.S. cents per pound on March 11, up 3.57 cents or 5.6 per cent from the week before.

While corn, soybean and wheat prices won’t be as closely tied to crude oil as soyoil, Reilly said their movement will still be determined elsewhere.

“The outside markets will continue to drive the markets for at least until when the conflict starts to wind down,” he added. “Fertilizer is going to be heavily impacted and it will drive up the costs for farmers across the globe. It’s shifting some ideas and we could see less acres go into the ground this spring across North America.”

There was also speculation the United States Environmental Protection Agency may submit its 2026 renewal fuel standard later this week, which could increase the need for corn (ethanol) and soybeans (biodiesel). However, Reilly doesn’t anticipate any increased demand.

“Currently, the prices of some of the feed stocks like canola oil going to California or (used cooking oil) and tallow, their prices are at a discount to soybean oil,” he explained. “I don’t see any greater demand for alternative fuel sources, but no doubt we’ll probably be blending as much ethanol as we can.”

Reilly added he was surprised to see the U.S. Department of Agriculture trim projected soyoil use for biofuel by 800 million pounds at 14 billion in its monthly supply/demand estimates released on March 10. But there were little changes to projected U.S. corn, soybean and wheat stocks. While Reilly thought corn and soybean exports were “on the low side”, he believes the trade is more focused on new crop plantings.

“We still have several months to go until the end of the regular crop year,” Reilly said. “But either way, U.S. soybean stocks are expected to be pretty tight at the end of the season as China continues to buy U.S. beans.”

The war in Iran will continue to leave the trade guessing and keep prices higher, Reilly stated, adding that some analysts believe crude oil could surpass US$150/barrel. However, prices should stabilize once the war ends.

“I think after things start to cool down a little bit, I’d look for prices to get lower,” he said.

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Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said May corn was approaching a February low but is setting itself up for a March rally. As for wheat, he said funds were short and technicals were conducive for rallies the past week.

Soybeans’ rise can be attributed to rallying soyoil, of which the May contract had a weekly gain of 1.58 cents per pound. But the White House is expected to announce its biodiesel fuel blend in the coming days.

“That one could end up being ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact,’” he said. “We’re racing to meet a self-imposed deadline by the end of March. We’ve already put that rally into the market.”

Exports also should be giving support to corn and soybeans, said Capinegro.

“The corn exports continue to be good, but the corn market does act sloppy. We are breaking to the lower end of the range (in March corn). As for soybeans, it’s China, China, China,” he said, adding that the U.S. is waiting for Lunar New Year celebrations to end before shipping more beans to China.

The United States Department of Agriculture will host its 2026 Agricultural Outlook Forum from Feb. 19 to 20 in Arlington, Va. Capinegro said many are expecting projected corn acres to be trimmed while those for soybeans are raised. However, one grain’s loss could benefit two major crops.

“Are they taking into consideration (the loss) of a lot of rice acres down south?” he said. “They’re going into corn and beans.”

The post CBOT Weekly: Choppy futures looking for direction appeared first on Farmtario.

Farmers expect corn, the most widely grown U.S. crop, to hew close to break-even levels this year, supported by strong usage. Some see soybeans as riskier, given rising competition from Brazil and a volatile U.S. trade relationship with top buyer China.

“Right now, you absolutely cannot make money on beans,” said Tim Gregerson, who farms in eastern Nebraska. “You can probably break even on corn, but you are going to have to have an extraordinary yield, or a price increase,” Gregerson said.

Most growers in America’s Midwest farm belt grow both crops, alternating what gets planted on each field from year to year to boost soil health. Many add wheat, sorghum, cotton or other crops to their rotations. But among farmers who have some flexible acres where they can plant anything, many see corn as their best bet.

USDA revisions add challenges

Planting decisions for 2026, hashed out in the winter months, mark the first step in determining the amount of grain produced in the world’s largest corn exporting nation and the second-biggest soybean supplier after Brazil.

Decisions are particularly challenging this year after the U.S. Agriculture Department made unprecedented revisions in January to its estimate of the last season’s harvested corn acreage, which, along with larger-than-expected estimates of the 2025 corn yield and stocks on hand as of December 1, pushed down prices.

Ahead of the USDA’s annual outlook forum this week, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average projected corn plantings for 2026 at 94.9 million acres, down about four per cent from last year’s 89-year high, but still the second-most corn acres in 13 years. The poll put soybean plantings at 84.9 million acres, in line with the 10-year average and up from the 81 million acres seeded in 2025, a six-year low.

U.S. farmers grew the biggest corn crop in history last year at more than 17 billion bushels, stuffing the nation’s grain bins and weighing on Chicago Board of Trade corn futures.

However, a record pace of export sales and robust demand from ethanol producers has kept a floor under prices as acreage ideas for 2026 take shape.

Even with rising costs for inputs such as seeds and fertilizer, CBOT December corn futures, representing the 2026 harvest, are hovering near $4.60 (C$6.28) a bushel, close to break-even levels for farmers.

“The market is signaling, ‘We don’t want you to cut too many corn acres.’ We don’t need as many as last year, but with today’s demand base, it’s not like we need a huge drop,” said Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University.

Pressures in farm country

Some U.S. farmers are struggling to stay solvent, even with increased government aid payments.

Soybeans cost less to grow, and demand from domestic crushers and the burgeoning biofuels industry should help offset diminished export sales due to trade tensions with China, by far the world’s largest buyer. China has purchased 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans since a late-October trade truce.

But prospects of future U.S. soy exports are uncertain ahead of a planned April meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, farmers in Brazil have begun to reap a record-large soy harvest that should dominate the global soy trade.

“The soybean market is more of a political football than the corn market right now,” said Dan O’Brien, an economist with Kansas State University.

Big corn yields

Corn typically yields more than triple the grain per acre compared to soybeans. While a large output pressures prices, individual farmers can earn more. Last year’s national corn yield was the highest on record at 186.5 bushels per acre, and state records were set in the No. 3 and 4 growing states of Minnesota and Nebraska as well as states farther on the fringe of the Corn Belt, like North Dakota.

As they finish their cropping plans for 2026, farmers say they are looking for ways to cut costs. In Nebraska, Gregerson has stopped buying new machinery and has found ways to cut fertilizer use. He is considering cutting back on herbicide applications, but doing so would mean staying close to the farm throughout the growing season to scout crops especially closely.

“When you do that, you have live and die in a sprayer. You don’t go on vacation in the spring or the summer. You have got to be so timely on killing your weeds.”

In North Dakota, farmer Phil Volk says growers in his area are delaying machinery repairs, skipping niceties like growth-promoting seed treatments on soybeans, and devoting most of their input costs to corn, his most profitable crop in 2025. Volk expects to expand his corn acreage this spring by 15 per cent compared to last year.

“They are going to cut as many expenses on soybeans (as possible) and pour all the juice to corn,” Volk said.

— one acre equals 0.405 hectares

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March soybeans rose 10.5 U.S. cents per bushel over the past week at US$10.75, while March corn gained 8.25 cents at US$4.30/bu. March Chicago wheat surged 28.25 cents to close at US$5.36/bu., its Kansas City hard red wheat counterpart added 22.25 cents at US$5.4225/bu. and March Minneapolis spring wheat was up 10.25 cents at US$5.74/bu.

Jack Scoville of The Price Futures Group in Chicago said cold temperatures ahead of the storm’s arrival may have damaged crops in winter wheat-growing areas, putting a weather premium on prices.

“(Winterkill) was probably the biggest impact,” Scoville said, adding that lower winter wheat prices earlier this month were setting up for a rally eventually.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently threatened a number of countries, including Iran, Greenland and Canada, reducing confidence in the U.S. dollar. As a result, the currency weakened against its international counterparts. However, a lower dollar means cheaper exports and increased buying interest.

For the week ended Jan. 15, U.S. soybean and corn export sales reached marketing-year highs of 2.45 million tonnes and 4.01 million, respectively, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat export sales exceeded trade expectations for the week at 618,100 tonnes.

“Both those numbers are very high. They did support commercial demand and they are supporting commercial demand now,” Scoville said. “If the U.S. dollar stays weak, I imagine (export) sales will be stronger.”

He anticipated prices to become stronger in the next week and beyond. The March soybean contract could surpass the US$11/bu. level just in time before the South American soybean harvest enters the markets. The March corn contract could move up to US$4.45/bu, Scoville added.

“(March Chicago) wheat could move back to (November 2025) highs, US$5.60 to US$5.65/bu. Prices would be up across the board,” he said.

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Ettner said there were some surprises in the monthly supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture released on Jan. 12. The moves in the three commodities have largely settled down.

“On the corn side, they raised harvested acres by 1.3 million,” Ettner said on Jan. 14. “There weren’t too many people talking about harvested (corn) acreage ahead of the report.”

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates increased its call on harvested corn acres for 2025/26 to 91.3 million and nudged up the national yield by 0.5 of a bushel per acre to 186.5.

For soybeans, Ettner said it was a little bit of a surprise that the USDA cut exports by 16 million bushels at nearly 1.58 billion.

“The 16 million was larger than expected,” he said.

The changes to wheat weren’t much of a surprise either, Ettner added, noting that the market “presold” those ideas well before the WASDE was released and the reaction was toned down.

Ettner said that with the new carryouts for soybeans, corn and wheat, their prices have adjusted close to their fair values.

“There’s really not much of a need to move up or down based on carryouts,” he said, noting that some short-term movement could come from notable changes to exports or on fresh news that’s significant.

“The next sizeable report for a move will be the March 31 acreage report,” he added.

As for U.S. soybean export sales to China, Ettner said he’s confident that the latter will meet the 12 million tonnes of purchases by the end of February.

“Most of the commentary make it sound like it won’t happen or reasons why we think it won’t happen,” Ettner said. “I haven’t seen a buying pace slow enough to doubt it. Now with the lower price (for soybeans) we may even see them pick up the pace.”

Reports indicated China is believed to have bought about 10 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans over the last two and a half months. That leaves China with six weeks to acquire the remainder.

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