The last El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years, was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods in 2016.

Historically, milder-than-normal winters and springs are known to occur in Western, northwestern and central Canada during El Nino periods, according to Environment Canada.

Eastern and Atlantic Canada aren’t known to be “significantly” impacted by El Nino events, though such an event may reduce tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.

The possibility of a transition to El Nino weather-pattern is nearing 50 per cent by the 2018-19 Northern Hemisphere winter, the U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are favoured through September-November this year, it added.

ENSO-neutral refers to those periods in which neither El Nino nor La Nina is present, according to CPC.

Last month, the weather forecaster said there was a more than 50 per cent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing through the Northern Hemisphere summer in 2018.

During ENSO-neutral periods, the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average, according to the CPC website.

— Reporting for Reuters by Harshith Aranya and Vijaykumar Vedala in Bangalore. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is linked with floods and droughts. It is the opposite phase of what is known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in its monthly forecast pegged the chance of so called ENSO-neutral conditions at about 55 per cent during the March-May season.

“La Nina is anticipated to continue affecting temperature and precipitation across the United States during the next few months,” the agency said.

The agency last month projected a 85 to 95 per cent chance of La Nina conditions persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

La Nina emerged in 2016 for the first time since 2012, before fading in early 2017.

Typically less damaging than El Nino, La Nina tends to occur unpredictably every two to seven years.

During a La Nina year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the southeastern U.S. and cooler than normal in the northwest, according to the U.S. National Ocean Service.

The southwest typically sees drought conditions during a La Nina cycle as a high-pressure ridge prevents storms moving west from the Pacific to the states of New Mexico and Arizona.

According to Environment Canada, climatic anomalies known to take place during La Nina winters include above-average precipitation for British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and colder-than-normal temperatures for the Prairies.

— Reporting for Reuters by Sumita Layek in Bangalore. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in a monthly forecast said that neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring.

La Nina emerged last year for the first time since 2012. The phenomenon, characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is linked with floods and droughts.

Even though neutral conditions are most likely, there is a chance of the appearance of El Nino — when surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific turn warmer than average — as early as March to May 2017, the forecaster warned.

That would be less than a year after the last El Nino faded, having brought serious crop damage, forest fires and flash floods.

In Western, northwestern and central Canada, an El Nino event is most often associated with above-normal temperatures and drier conditions during winter and spring.

According to Environment Canada, El Nino doesn’t significantly impact Eastern Canada or the Maritimes, but may reduce tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

— Reporting for Reuters by Chris Prentice in New York. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said in a monthly forecast that conditions were likely to transition back to neutral during January through March.

The report said La Nina would likely bring above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across much of the southern tier of the U.S. and the reverse in the northern tier.

Typically less damaging than El Nino, La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and tends to occur unpredictably every two to seven years. Severe occurrences have been linked to floods and droughts.

Environment Canada has previously said La Nina, during the winter, is often linked to above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies.

— Reporting for Reuters by Chris Prentice. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, said in a monthly forecast there was a 55 to 60 per cent chance of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions.

The CPC had said last month that La Nina conditions were slightly favoured to occur.

La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It tends to occur unpredictably every two to seven years. Severe occurrences have been linked to floods and droughts.

Environment Canada has previously said La Nina, during the winter, is often linked to above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies.

— Reporting for Reuters by Luc Cohen. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, said in its monthly forecast there is a 55-60 per cent chance that the La Nina weather phenomenon will develop during the fall and winter of 2016-17.

Last month, the CPC forecast that La Nina was favoured to develop during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer with a 75 per cent chance of it developing in the fall and winter.

La Nina, which is typically less damaging than El Nino, is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It tends to occur unpredictably every two to seven years. Severe occurrences have been linked to floods and droughts.

Near-to below-average surface temperatures across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were observed during the past month, the CPC said.

Last month, the agency said that El Nino conditions, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that has been linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods over the past year, had largely disappeared.

Environment Canada has previously said La Nina, during the winter, is often linked to above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies.

— Reporting for Reuters by Marcy Nicholson. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in its monthly forecast pegged the chance of La Nina developing in the fall and winter 2016-17 at 75 per cent.

That follows a forecast last month for an increasing chance of La Nina in the second half of the year.

Japan’s meteorological agency said Thursday there was a high possibility that a La Nina weather pattern would emerge in summer after the current El Nino phenomenon ends, adding there was a high possibility the El Nino would finish before summer.

Australian forecasters earlier this week put the chance of a La Nina emerging in 2016 at 50 per cent.

La Nina, which is typically less damaging than El Nino, is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It tends to occur unpredictably every two to seven years.

In Canada, according to the federal environment department, a La Nina winter is often linked to above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies.

Where El Nino, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, can trigger drought in Southeast Asia and Australia and floods in South America, hitting production of key foods such as rice, wheat and sugar, La Nina is linked to wetter conditions over much of Australia and Southeast Asia.

— Reporting for Reuters by Chris Prentice and Osamu Tsukimori. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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Soybean futures were mixed, with the most-active contract easing after hitting a 3-1/2-month peak overnight. Deferred contracts ended slightly higher, supported by recent gains in Brazil’s currency that raised hopes of increased export demand for U.S. supplies.

Profit-taking weighed on corn futures, which closed in negative territory following a run-up to a six-week high on Thursday.

Despite the late round of short-covering, the most-actively traded Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter wheat contract notched a weekly loss of 2.5 per cent, its biggest such decline in six weeks.

Forecasts for good weather for crop development across the U.S. Plains kept a bearish tone firmly in place over the wheat market despite the higher close.

“Cold risks for wheat areas remain low through the rest of the month, as temperatures will not be cold enough in areas lacking snow cover to threaten damage,” according to a forecast from Commodity Weather Group.

Also, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center was forecasting above-average precipitation in the region for April through June.

Chicago Board of Trade May soft red winter wheat futures settled up 1/2 cent at $4.63 a bushel (all figures US$).

CBOT May soybeans were 1/4 cent lower at $8.97-1/2 a bushel, and CBOT May corn slipped 1-1/4 cents to $3.67 a bushel.

For the week, soybeans rose 0.1 per cent, their third straight weekly gain, and corn futures were up 0.5 per cent.

The soybean market has already attracted extra demand as prices for Brazilian supplies have been boosted by a strengthening real.

In other export news, India canceled a tender to import 240,000 tonnes of corn, hoping for a bigger-than-expected local summer harvest and following uncertainty over the availability of non-genetically modified corn, trade and government sources said.

But the country may import wheat for the first time in a decade as persistent rain and hailstorms could cut India’s wheat crop by at least 14 per cent, an industry body said on Friday.

U.S. wheat, however, would face tough competition for any new business due to plentiful supplies from Europe and the Black Sea region.

— Mark Weinraub is a Reuters correspondent covering grain markets from Chicago. Additional reporting for Reuters by Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Gus Trompiz in Paris.

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The return of La Nina, Spanish for “the girl” and characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures, is possible later this year, the U.S. government forecaster said Thursday. It joined other forecasters in projecting La Nina could follow on the heels of one of the strongest El Ninos on record.

Weather models indicate La Nina conditions, which tend to occur unpredictably every two to seven years, may emerge in the Northern Hemisphere fall, while El Nino — which means “the little boy” in Spanish — is expected to dissipate during the late spring or early summer, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

The phenomenon can be less damaging than El Nino, but severe La Ninas are linked to floods, droughts and hurricanes.

Even though CPC is not on official watch for La Nina, the probability is trending toward one, said Michelle L’Heureux, a CPC climate scientist and El Nino/La Nina expert.

When La Nina last appeared from August 2011 to March 2012, it hurt corn and soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil, brought the worst drought in a century to Texas and increased the number of storms that threatened U.S. coastal regions, like Hurricane Irene.

According to Environment Canada, a La Nina winter is often linked to above-average precipitation in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and colder-than-normal temperatures on the Prairies.

Energy and agricultural commodities have been roiled by the current and much-watched El Nino, which involves a pattern of warmer ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific every few years.

Over the last year, El Nino has parched fields in the Philippines and Indonesia, brought unseasonable rains to areas of South America, driven up global food prices, and caused flash floods in Somalia that destroyed thousands of homes.

El Nino is likely to keep affecting temperature and precipitation patterns across the U.S. in the upcoming months, CPC said in its forecast.

“As we get into the spring, we’d still expect to see some influence. Folks need to keep their eyes on El Nino,” CPC’s L’Heureux said.

— Chris Prentice reports on soft commodities and the biofuel sector for Reuters from New York. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, was in line in its monthly forecast with a growing consensus that the much-watched phenomenon, which can roil commodities markets, will dissipate in the coming months.

Most models indicate the El Nino will weaken and shift to neutral, though it is difficult to predict the exact timing, the CPC said. Its forecast was broadly in line with similar ones in recent days that have said El Nino has reached its height and looks to be weakening.

El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that occurs every few years, triggering heavy rains and floods in South America and scorching weather in Asia and as far away as east Africa.

In Western and central Canada, an El Nino event is most often associated with above-normal temperatures and drier conditions during winter.

— Reporting for Reuters by Chris Prentice in New York.

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