AAFC cautioned that the conflict in Iran “has heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility,” and noted that planting decisions could be altered while “the report is based on information and trade policies in effect as of March 11, 2026.”

Canola

• Projected canola ending stocks for 2025-26 were left unchanged at 2.76 million tonnes, while the 2026-27 forecast was cut by 200,000 tonnes from February at 1.46 million tonnes.

• Given average yields, AAFC forecast Canadian canola production in 2026-27 at 19.20 million tonnes, which was unchanged from the February estimate and down from the 21.80 million tonnes grown in 2025-26.

Wheat

• New crop wheat ending stocks were raised to 5.75 million tonnes from 5.70 million in February, while the 2025-26 wheat carryout held at 7.35 million tonnes.

• AAFC raised its call on wheat production to 35.01 million tonnes, from 34.98 million the previous month. That would still be well below the 39.96 million tonnes harvested in 2025-26.

Pulses

• Other notable revisions included slight increases in pea and lentil production estimates, with ending stocks of the two pulses also up by 100,000 tonnes each from the previous forecast.

• The pea carryout for 2026-27 was raised to 945,000 tonnes from 845,000 tonnes in February, while lentils were forecast at 1.67 million from 1.57 million tonnes.

• Pea ending stocks for the current marketing year are estimated at 1.31 million tonnes with lentils at 1.695 million tonnes.

Soybeans/Corn

• Corn ending stocks for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 were left at 2.00 million tonnes.

• Soybean carryout for 2026-27 was cut by 50,000 tonnes from February, at 693,000 tonnes, which compares with 443,000 for the current marketing year.

March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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Corn: Tight stocks should mean good Ontario demand over the summer.

Soybeans: Export and domestic demand running the same as 2024-25, despite lower stocks.

Wheat: About 40 per cent of U.S. winter wheat is under drought conditions.

Ontario on-farm corn, soybeans and wheat stocks will drop to historically low levels at the end of the 2025-26 crop year. There is no cushion in Ontario if there is a crop problem.

The grain and oilseed markets are incorporating a risk premium due to the uncertainty in production. Ontario has received below-normal precipitation over the past 30 days. On March 5, Statistics Canada will release its first acreage estimate for 2026.

Canada, the U.S. and most of the developed world appear to be heading into a major inflationary period over the next couple of years. On a macro level, this is bullish for grain and oilseed markets. The world is no longer comfortable with past levels of ending stocks. Food security will be more of an issue given fresh trade alliances and deglobalization. If there are one or two problem areas in the Northern Hemisphere during the 2026 growing season, we are in for significantly higher prices. Fertilizer prices are back up to historical highs. Keep all this in mind as you read the following analysis.

Soybeans

Ontario farmers harvested 3.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025, down from the 2024 output of 4.3 million tonnes. Canadian crop year-to-date soybean exports for the week ending Feb. 15 were 3.5 million tonnes, up 100,000 tonnes from last year. Crop year-to-date domestic disappearance for the week, at 928,400 tonnes, was down 100,000 tonnes from the year-ago usage. Despite the year-over-year decrease in production, export and domestic demand is running at similar levels to last year. The Ontario domestic market needs to trade high enough to curb exports and to attract imports in the latter part of the crop year.

Finally, the Ontario soybean market needs to strengthen to encourage farmers to increase acreage this spring. At this stage, Ontario soybean prices need to move $1/bu. higher to pull acres away from corn.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant 85 million acres of soybeans this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This is up from the 2025 planted area of 81.2 million. U.S. production has the potential to reach 121 million tonnes, up from last year’s crop of 116 million tonnes. Despite the increase in production, the carryout for 2026-27 will finish near 9.7 million tonnes, relatively unchanged from 2025-26 campaign due to an increase on domestic and export demand. There are some drier pockets developing in the U.S. Midwest and northern Plains moving into the spring period. The market will be extremely sensitive to yield and crop development.

U.S. soybeans continue to trade at a premium to South American origin as the Brazilian harvest moves into the final stages. The Argentine soybean crop will be harvested during March and April.

We’ve advised farmers to be 70 per cent sold on their 2025 soybean production. We continue to have a bullish outlook for the soybean market.

Corn

Ontario corn prices have been percolating higher. Certain ethanol processors are well covered for their nearby requirements but there appears to be significant open demand for May through August. We have a bullish outlook for the energy complex which will directly spill over into the corn market. Ethanol processors will have a hard time sourcing adequate supplies late in the crop year, given the tighter stocks situation. On a side note, feedlot operators also need to have full coverage through September. Higher fertilizer prices may hinder corn acreage this spring. New-crop prices will function to encourage production moving forward.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant 94 million acres of corn this spring, down from the 2025 area of 98.8 million, according to USDA. Using a trend yield, U.S. production has potential to finish near 400 million tonnes, down from the 2025 crop of 432 million tonnes. Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri and Illinois are contending with drier conditions heading into spring.

Brazil’s second corn crop was about 50 per cent planted at the end of February. Conditions have been favourable for early crop development. Traders are concerned about drier conditions during April due to La Niña. The Argentine corn harvest will move into high gear during March. We’re expecting the corn market to develop a significant risk premium in late March and April.

Europe is the main destination for Ontario corn exports in a normal year. Currently, the Ontario corn market is premium to U.S. and French offers keeping Ontario corn at bay. Ontario corn prices will need to maintain a premium over the world market.

This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent of their 2025 production bringing total sales to 70 per cent. Ingredion Cardinal Corn bids were hovering at $7 for May delivery. The market is showing a carrying charge which tells farmers to sell now for delivery in May or June.

Wheat

The Ontario winter wheat crop for the 2026 harvest is expected to come in at 2.5 million tonnes, down from the 2025 crop of 2.9 million tonnes. This lower production estimate comes on the heels of a historically tight carryout. Flour millers appear to have open demand for May through July. Currently, Ontario export offers are premium to French values f.o.b. Rouen and U.S. prices f.o.b. the Gulf.

Approximately 40 per cent of the U.S. winter wheat region is contending with some level of drought. The U.S. hard red winter crop in Texas, Oklahoma and parts of Kansas will need timely rains during March and April to sustain yield potential.

In Russia and Ukraine, the ongoing war has also resulted in a cash market risk premium. The latest weapons developments in Ukraine have enhanced the ability to strike Russian grain and energy infrastructure. These Ukrainian-manufactured weapons are not under Western restrictions. Secondly, there are pockets in the Russian Southern District, Volga District and North Caucasus District that have received below-normal precipitation over the past couple of months.

In Germany and Poland, the winter wheat lacked snow cover during a recent cold snap. There is potential for larger than normal winterkill. These regions have also received below-normal precipitation. Romania is also on the drier side while conditions in France have improved.

Analysts are factoring in a year-over-year decrease in production in the U.S., Russia, Europe and Canada. This week, we’re advising farmers to sell 20 per cent of their 2025 production, bringing sales to 60-70 per cent for milling and feed wheat.

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• · Estimated wheat ending stocks grew to 7.500 million tonnes, from 5.100 million in November and 4.112 million in 2024/25. Wheat exports for 2025/26 were raised to 28.350 million, from 27.700 million in November but still below the 29.220 million that moved in 2024/25.
• · Projected canola ending stocks for 2025/26 were up by 450,000 tonnes from November, at 2.950 million tonnes. That compares with 1.597 million in 2024/25. Canola exports at 8.000 million tonnes compare with 7.000 million in November. However, that would still be down by 1.3 million tonnes on the year. Domestic canola usage was forecast to hit a record 12.000 million tonnes.
• · The barley carryout was raised to 1.5 million tonnes, from 1.000 million in November and 1.249 million tonnes the previous year.
• · Ending stocks for peas and lentils were both forecast to be roughly three-times the carryout from 2024/25 at 1.568 million tonnes and 1.535 million tonnes respectively.
• · Downward revisions to soybean and corn production by Statistics Canada led to reductions in the ending stocks forecasts from AAFC. Soybean ending stocks were down by 100,000 tonnes from November at 400,000 tonnes, while the corn carryout was cut by 300,000 tonnes at 1.600 million tonnes.

December estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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Noting that “geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have heightened volatility in both Canadian and international grain markets,” AAFC said its forecasts were based off the current trade policies and could easily be altered in subsequent reports.

China imposed 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian canola oil, meal, and peas beginning March 20, while the U.S. has set April 2 as its next tariff date.

AAFC raised its call for 2025/26 canola ending stocks to 2.000 million tonnes, which compares with the February estimate of 1.000 million tonnes and the 2024/25 projection of 1.300 million tonnes.

While anticipated canola exports were revised slightly higher from the February forecast, they would still be down by 1.500 million tonnes on the year at 6.000 million. Meanwhile, projected domestic canola usage for 2025/26 was forecast at 11.400 million tonnes — down by a million tonnes from the February forecast.

“The reduced (domestic usage) forecast is tentative and may decline further if proposed tariffs and trade disturbances materialize,” said AAFC adding “the crush forecast may revert to last month’s estimates if policies stabilize, and plants operate at full capacity.

Meanwhile, AAFC expects Canadian pea exports will fall sharply from the current crop year with the expectation that current Chinese import tariffs continue and the non-import dry pea tariff exemption from India expires on May 31, 2025. Carry-out pea stocks are expected to rise to the record level of 1.775 million tonnes, from 700,000 for 2024/25.

March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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The government agency upped its call for both 2024/25 and 2025/26 canola ending stocks by 50,000 tonnes, now estimating carryout at 1.300 million and 1.000 million tonnes respectively. If realized, both years would still be well below the 2.748 million tonnes of canola on hand at the end of 2023/24.

Meanwhile, wheat ending stocks were lowered, with the country’s 2024/25 wheat carryout down by 150,000 tonnes from the December estimate at 4.400 million tonnes and 2025/26 ending stocks down by 50,000 tonnes at 4.500 million tonnes.

Statistics Canada will release its first planting projections for the 2025/26 crop on March 12.

February estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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Canola ending stocks for 2024-25 were forecast at 2.200 million tonnes, down by 300,000 from the September estimate. That compares with the downwardly revised 2.748 million tonnes of canola carried forward from 2023-24. Usage numbers for 2024-25 were relatively unchanged, with exports steady at 7.500 million tonnes and domestic usage down by only 45,000 tonnes from September at 12.128 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 were lowered to 4.900 million tonnes, from 5.050 million tonnes in September. Total Canadian wheat exports for 2024-25 were raised by 100,000 tonnes, to 25.400 million tonnes, which would be in line with the 25.334 million tonnes exported in 2023-24.

October estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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Based on data from Statistics Canada, AAFC raised the seeded area for durum wheat by 22,239 acres at 6.365 million for 2024-25. Projected durum projection was increased from 5.655 million tonnes in the June estimates to 6.30 million in AAFC’s most recent figures. Exports increased 300,000 tonnes to 4.8 million, while feed waste and dockage rose 245,000 tonnes to 662,000, leaving a 100,000-tonne rise in estimated carryout at 800,000 tonnes. The projected carryout for 2023-24 was 350,000 tonnes.

However, AAFC cut its seeded area in 2024-25 for all other types of wheat by 299,000 acres at 20.401 million. Production rose by 191,000 tonnes at 28.937 million. Exports moved up by 50,000 tonnes at 20.55 million, while feed and dockage waste also increased by 141,000 tonnes at 4.676 million. As a result, ending stocks remained at 2.45 million tonnes, 100,000 more than in 2023-24.

Projected canola area for 2024-25 rose by 612,821 acres from the June estimate at 22.007 million acres with production increasing by 528,000 tonnes at 18.628 million. Exports went up by 100,000 tonnes at seven million, while feed and dockage waste added 28,000 tonnes at 327,000. The projected ending stocks were down 400,000 tonnes at 2.1 million, 350,000 tonnes more than the 2023-24 carryout.

Barley area for 2024-25 was trimmed by 748,729 acres at 6.385 million, while production was down 988,000 tonnes at 8.508 million. Exports were down 100,000 tonnes at 2.95 million, while feed and dockage waste were projected to decline by 534,000 tonnes at 5.079 million. Ending stocks would fall by 350,000 tonnes to 600,000, compared to 650,000 tonnes in 2023-24.

Soybean area for 2024-25 rose 160,619 acres from the June report at 5.743 million acres. As a result, estimated production increased by 202,000 tonnes at 7.102 million. Exports were raised by 50,000 tonnes at five million, while feed and dockage waste was up 2,000 tonnes at 348,000. As a result, ending stocks were up 150,000 tonnes at 520,000. Soybean carryout at the end of 2023-24 was 415,000 tonnes.

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Canadian canola stocks as of Dec. 31, 2023, came in at 12.9 million tonnes, which was up 1.3 per cent from the same time the previous year but slightly below the five-year average of 13.3 million tonnes. On-farm stocks were up 5.6 per cent from the same time the previous year, at 11.7 million tonnes, while commercial stocks fell 27.7 per cent at 1.2 million tonnes. Some market participants had anticipated even larger on-farm stocks, given the slower export pace during the crop year-to-date.

Meanwhile, total wheat stocks were down 10.3 per cent on the year at 20.7 million tonnes. On-farm stocks fell 11.7 per cent to come in at 16.7 million tonnes while commercial holdings were down 4.2 per cent at 4.0 million tonnes. Canadian wheat exports through the first five months of the crop year were up 2.7 per cent at 10.6 million tonnes.

Barley stocks increased to 5.5 million tonnes, from 5.2 million tonnes at the end of December 2022. The increased stocks came despite the smaller crop, as domestic usage declined 16.6 per cent on the year, according to StatCan.

Oats stocks were down 40.3 per cent year over year at 2.1 million tonnes. Pea and lentil stocks were down 15.6 per cent and 30.5 per cent respectively, at 1.8 million tonnes for peas and 1.0 million tonnes for lentils.

Corn stocks in the country were down 4.8 per cent at 11.3 million tonnes, while soybean supplies increased 9.8 per cent to come in at 3.8 million tonnes.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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USDA defied trade expectations when it came to 2023-24 ending stocks of U.S. corn, soybeans, and all wheat, with those being higher. As well, the department came in above what the markets foresaw for this year’s corn and soybean yields. However, the new USDA numbers did not exceed the range of market expectations.

With the average trade guess on 2023-24 U.S. corn yields at 173.2 bushels per acre, the USDA’s November number came in at 174.9 bu./ac., versus October’s 173. That altered production from 15.06 billion bushels last month to now 15.23 billion, well above the average trade guess of 15.09 billion. That raised ending stocks from 2.11 billion bushels in October to 2.16 billion this month. The trade range was from two billion to 2.5 billion bushels.

For 2023-24 U.S. soybeans, USDA bumped up the yields from 49.6 bu./ac. in October to 49.9, when the average trade guess expected 49.5, based on a range of 49 to 50.4. Production increased from October’s 4.1 billion bushels to 4.13 billion, due to better than anticipated harvests in Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota and Ohio. The average market projection was 4.11 billion bushels, from a range of 4.04 billion to 4.17 billion.

While the trade believed the U.S. soybean carryover would be 221 million bushels, one million more than in October’s report, USDA boosted its figure to 245 million. The range had been 190 million to 261 million.

All U.S. wheat was largely expected to standpat, but USDA increased ending stocks by 14 million bushels to now 684 million. Trade guesses ranged from 650 million to 696 million bushels. The department noted that while exports held at 700 million bushels, domestic use slipped four million at 1.86 million.

Globally, one of the most notable changes in the November USDA report came in the 2023-24 corn carryover, which climbed from 312.4 million tonnes in October to now 314.99 million. Based on a range of 309 million to 314 million tonnes, the average trade guess was 312 million.

Wheat also came in a little bit above the trade guesses, with USDA nudging up its 2023-24 carryout from 258.1 million tonnes last month to November’s 258.69 million. The average trade guess was 257.9 million tonnes, from a range of 256 million to 259.4 million.

Among the changes USDA made for wheat by country were production decreases for India at 110.55 million tonnes (113.5 million in October); Argentina, 15 million tonnes (16.5 million); and Kazakhstan, 12 million (13 million). Russia had the most notable increase from 85 million tonnes in October to now 90 million, while Australia remained at 24.5 million despite its dry conditions.

Ending stocks for world soybeans did not remain unchanged at 115.6 million tonnes. Rather, USDA lowered 2023-24 stocks to 114.5 million tonnes; the trade placed them at 114.0 to 117.8 million.

Another surprise from USDA was no changes for 2023-24 corn and soybean production in Argentina and Brazil. That’s despite drought in Argentina, along with Brazil facing very dry conditions in its north and excessively wet conditions in its south. To USDA, Argentina was still on track to combine 55 million tonnes of corn and Brazil is to bring in 129 million. The soybean harvest in Argentina remained at 48 million tonnes, while Brazil is to reap 163 million.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Canola ending stocks for 2023-24 were left unchanged at one million tonnes, which compares with the 2022-23 level of 1.506 million tonnes. Canadian canola exports in 2023-24 were forecast to be down by about three per cent on the year, at 7.7 million tonnes, with domestic usage relatively steady at 10 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks for 2023-24 were left unchanged at 3.6 million tonnes by AAFC, which would be down only slightly from the 3.658 million-tonne carryout from the previous crop year. Projected Canadian wheat exports of 21.3 million tonnes compare with 25.666 million in 2022-23.

The pulse and special crops only saw minor adjustments, with projected pea ending stocks for 2023-24 left unchanged at 275,000 tonnes while lentils were lowered by 50,000 tonnes to only 100,000 tonnes. That compares with carryout of 498,000 tonnes for peas in 2022-23 and 147,000 tonnes for lentils.

Tables: October estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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