On April 1, profit-taking took May canola down C$13.30/tonne to close at C$718.50. However, it has still remained between C$710 to C$740 since March 24.

Phil Speiss from RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg said while canola prices have been in a bullish trend line over the past few months, fundamentals are leaning bearish due to large stocks and high acreage expectations this year.

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A canola contract closing below its 20-day average in two straight sessions is an indicator of a downturn, he added.

“That’s step one. Get a close below the trend line,” Speiss said. “If you can get (two closes below), well now you start talking maybe there’s a potential downside. You look at targets from previous days. On (March 23), we saw a low of C$708.70/tonne and (the week) before that, we saw C$700.60. Those would become targets on the downside.”

Canola prices are largely tied to crude oil and especially to Chicago soyoil, but Speiss said diesel and heating oil markets are also influencing the oilseed.

“(Heating oil) is the most firm out of the energy markets,” he said. “There is a connection there on the bio side of things … If you look at a heating oil chart, it’s going straight up. If you’re playing biofuel and you’re a speculator or large managed money and you see that play, you’re just feeding into that canola length.”

Canola crush margins are also remarkably strong with the May contract at C$333.64/tonne as of March 31, more than double from a year earlier (C$165.31). However, Speiss noted that margins are sure to come down soon.

“It’s parabolic,” he said. “We know the crush pace is the crush pace. We know that they’re full through summer. At some point, it’s just a number. From a futures perspective, we see crush demand getting pushed further and further out the curve: November, January 2027, March 2027 … (Crush margins) don’t play too much of a role anymore.”

As for where canola prices could go in the near future, Speiss said they’re as uncertain as the war itself.

“We’re so tied to the geopoliticals right now, it’s an impossibility,” he said. “If you want to bet on anything, the trend just stays intact until you break it.”

The post ICE Weekly: Trade waits for canola to break out appeared first on Farmtario.

As for the Canadian soybean crush, StatCan has not published any new data since it released its report for the July crush in August 2025. The agency said any numbers have been “suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act.”

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While the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand, StatCan didn’t include any soybean crush data for 2025 due to confidentiality requirements under the Statistics Act.

Canola

Canadian canola crushers took in more than 11.55 million tonnes of the oilseed last year, compared to the five-year average of 10.16 million. In the U.S., which has a far smaller canola crop to work with, its crush came to 2.02 million tonnes, a little more than the average of 1.98 million.

Soybeans

At more than 60 million tonnes, the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand with it far exceeding its five-year averages for seed, oil and meal. For the Canadian crush, it was receding from recent highs in 2022.

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David Derwin, a commodities investment advisor for Ventum Financial in Winnipeg, said higher crude and soyoil prices, as well as new Canadian canola exports to China, lifted the value of the oilseed.

“You see a bit of a chain effect. Crude oil goes up, then bean oil goes up and then canola too,” Derwin said. “Soyoil’s been a part (of these rallies) but other factors have helped, as well.”

He also said the funds have also flipped canola’s net position from short to long amidst speculation of the United States biofuel mandate for 2026.

Although canola prices ended mixed on Feb. 25, signaling a potential end to its rally, Derwin said canola previously broke through resistance levels when the oilseed was C$10 to C$20 per tonne lower. He believes there is still upside to go for canola.

“Those resistance levels are not set in stone and they can fluctuate,” he said. “(Canola) probably added C$80 per tonne since the beginning of the year. That’s a good move in a short period of time. It’s still pointing higher and over the course of the ride that we’ve seen since the beginning of the year, there will be periods of time where it gives back C$10 to C$15 and would still be in a shorter-term uptrend.”

China’s reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola last month were supportive of prices, as well as domestic demand. Derwin said an elevator sale of canola on Feb. 20 was “one of the largest in at least 10 years.”

“There certainly is buying by the grain companies and by end users. Demand has been fairly strong and some of it has been the China factor,” he added.

Another element that could affect canola prices will be Statistics Canada’s principal field crop area report on March 5. The report will be StatCan’s first to show estimated acreage numbers for the 2026-27 crop year. However, the figures were determined by a survey conducted before China reduced its tariffs on Canadian canola, and that could result in canola acres being underestimated.

“There’s always the potential for some kind of surprise or some interesting numbers to come from (the report). I would think as we go forward here, a lot of the same factors that have been helping (canola) trend higher will still be very much in place,” Derwin said.

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“Some positive news coming out of Beijing, which is great,” said Delaney Ross Burtnak, executive director of Manitoba Canola Growers Association. “This is a preliminary announcement at this point, so there’s still some work to do to understand what it means and what the final decision will be.”

The proposed agreement would ease tariffs on Canadian canola as part of a broader trade package between Canada and China, raising hopes for improved market access after months of disruption.

Ross Burtnak welcomed the significant reduction of canola seed tariffs and the expected elimination of the tariff on canola meal.

“That’s good news,” she said. “We’re not sure what’s happening with canola oil, so we need to understand that a little further.”

Ross Burtnak said tariffs have affected farmers most clearly through price and uncertainty. She noted there appeared to be an uptick in canola prices following news of the proposed tariff reductions, but said the bigger concern over the past 17 months has been whether farmers would be able to sell their canola at all.

“If the elevator or exporter doesn’t have a market to sell that canola into, they’re not going to be buying it from farmers,” she said. “This decision helps prevent that worst-case scenario.”

Ross Burtnak said the announcement offers some reassurance after a prolonged period of uncertainty for canola growers.

“There’s definitely some cautious optimism with this news this morning,” she said.

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Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities explained that stability was uncovered in the canola market as the shorts covered their positions and buyers explored the long side.

“That’s been a feature that’s given us support,” said Tryhuk.

He also said there is more optimism among canola growers that a resolution in the trade war between Canada and China is on the horizon. Federal agriculture minister Heath MacDonald told Reuters that talks with officials during his recent weeklong trip to China were constructive.

“I think that has farmers waiting for (a resolution) to happen, or to see more of a conclusion of what will happen, whether it will proceed or not proceed, before their next round of sales,” Tryhuk said, adding that in the meantime, there is also strong demand from the domestic crush sector.

“We are seeing that, in general, the crush margins are profitable. We don’t ignore the biofuel component. We don’t ignore the soyoil input into the board crush calculations. But as that remains positive, you can expect to see ongoing consistent crusher participation in the market.”

The United States Department of Agriculture will release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Nov. 14 and Tryhuk said more current data could have a spillover effect on canola prices.

“We need that outside influence in order to determine where values are headed and getting some direction from the USDA should help us be in a better position to forecast soybean prices and from that, essentially make a decision where the price of canola is headed,” he explained.

Despite the probable end of the U.S. government shutdown and progress in Canada-China trade relations, he expects canola prices to stay rangebound in the coming days.

“The market has found an equilibrium given the (news) it has to work with. Until you get a new input that will change the outlook, (canola) will trade sideways, for sure,” Tryhuk said.

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Citing confidentiality requirements under the Statistics Act, StatCan’s August crush report did not have any data for soybeans, as with its previous July report.

The crush data is as follows. Figures are in metric tonnes.

Year Ago 2025/26 2024/25

Canola Aug 2025 Aug 2024 To Date To Date

Seed crushed 867,944 850,529 867,944 850,529

Oil produced 367,299 363,165 367,299 363,165

Meal produced 514,942 494,028 514,942 494,028

Soybeans

Seed crushed n/a 70,309 n/a 70,309

Oil produced n/a 21,067 n/a 21,067

Meal produced n/a 55,592 n/a 55,592

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Oil production of 4.84 million tonnes during the calendar year compares with 4.42 million tonnes the previous year. Meal production came in at 6.62 million tonnes, which was up by 6.7 per cent from 2023.

Strong demand and increased canola oil exports contributed to the larger crush, said StatCan. Canadian canola oil exports during 2024 at 3.5 million tonnes were up by 10.7 per cent on the year.

However, the Canadian soybean crush fell by 11.6 per cent in 2024 to 1.56 million tonnes. Soyoil production of 287,000 tonnes was down 13.0 per cent on the year and marked the smallest output in the past eight years of data available. Soymeal production of 1.22 million tonnes compares with 1.37 million tonnes the previous year.

Meanwhile, the oilseed processors in the United States crushed 63.54 million tonnes of soybeans in 2024 (up 3.7 per cent from 2023) and 2.19 million tonnes of canola (up 6.4 per cent).

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The canola crush was more than 1.01 million tonnes compared to 943,302 tonnes the previous December. Last month’s crush resulted in 426,519 tonnes of canola oil versus 402,183 in December 2023. As for canola meal, that improved to 599,500 tonnes from 549,331 a year ago.

Canada’s soybean crush reached 160,035 tonnes, which produced 30,516 tonnes of soyoil and 126,933 tonnes of soymeal. A year ago, the 152,209 tonnes of soybeans crushed resulted in 27,734 tonnes of soyoil and 118,054 tonnes of soymeal.

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Currently, the largest threats emanating out of the U.S. are the recent changes to the biofuel tax credits and the possibility of the Trump administration imposing a 25 per cent tariff on all goods the U.S. imports from Canada. Besides those, Vervaet warned that China has often been overlooked as a threat to Canada’s biofuel industry.

As for the most immediate challenge, Vervaet stressed that in recent years the U.S. has become Canada’s most important foreign customer for canola oil and meal.

The latest data from the Canadian International Merchandise Trade Database shows the U.S. accounting for 96.2 per cent of Canada’s canola exports at 3.14 million tonnes during the first 11 months of 2024. The December figures are not yet available.

For canola meal, the U.S. is also Canada’s top foreign customer at 3.44 million tonnes during the same period, which are 65.5 per cent of 2024 exports. In terms of canola seed, the U.S. is fifth at more than 271,000 tonnes.

“A tariff is going to have a significant impact on our industry,” he stated. “There are some interesting dynamics for sure in the United States. All (COPA) can really comment on is we will wait to see what approach the new administration takes towards biofuels.”

“In recent years almost all of the canola oil exports have gone to the United States. That’s primarily driven by the growth of the renewable fuels market in the United States, most notably that canola, was after many years, finally able to be an approved feedstock for renewable diesel production,” he continued.

That important change to Section 45Z of the Inflation Reduction Act was made by the U.S. government in 2023. However, earlier this January revisions to 45Z made by the U.S. agriculture and treasury departments excluded canola when a new carbon intensity score was added.

While canola’s inclusion has been good news, Vervaet added, “the not so good news story is that to qualify and to actually take advantage of (45Z) you have to have as a feedstock provider a carbon intensity score below a certain threshold. That threshold is going to be a challenge for canola to meet. Our carbon intensity based on the assumptions and the model being used puts us at a score that’s simply too high.”

Vervaet added that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely have some kind of new tax policy when it comes to biofuels. However, reports indicated there’s the chance of the biofuel tax credits being eliminated. The incoming Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, along with the next Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, and the new head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Lee Zeldin, have notable track records favouring fossil fuels over biofuels.

However, Vervaet said there are domestic opportunities for canola and its oil – something which the industry has been wanting to expand.

Reports indicated the domestic crush could be expanded to as much as 17 million tonnes per year from the current capacity of 11 million.

While the Trump tariff threat led Federated Co-op to put its canola expansion plans with AGT for Regina on hold, Vervaet pointed to another problem.

“There’s potentially a lot of Chinese used cooking oil that is finding its way into the Canadian biofuel market indirectly. That’s another big factor that’s sometimes gets lost in the shuffle in terms of demand erosion for canola over the short and medium term,” he stated.

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