Tryhuk said the liquidation of the nearby May contract has also been a main feature, with canola exports continuing to lurk in the background.

He said the commodity funds still have “substantial length” in that May contract, while hedgers, exporters and crushers have turned their focus to the much more traded July contract.

• For daily canola market updates, visit The Western Producer Markets Desk

Tryhuk also said there have been questions swirling about Canada’s canola export program, particularly with China.

“There’s been mixed feelings about how much China is in the market and if that’s going to have a material impact on the ending stocks number,” he said.

The most recent data from the Canadian Grain Commission showed 114,200 tonnes of canola were exported to China during February. However, given China’s earlier tariffs on the Canadian oilseed, cumulative exports for 2025-26 of 328,700 are less than a tenth of the same time last year.

There has been recent questions of whether China is currently buying canola, given how much it’s climbed since the start of the Middle East war. Tryhuk said the vessels in ports such as Vancouver can clarify the story.

“When you look at the vessel line up, there are a lot of boats headed to China,” he said. “What I have noticed is … as China becomes a more popular destination for exports, we’re now losing out on that business we had done before China came (back) into the market.”

Tryhuk said canola shipments to the European Union, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates have slowed.

“Those boats are not appearing on the vessel line-up,” he said. “What we are doing is we’ve substituted one canola outlet for another,” suggesting that won’t help to reduce canola ending stocks for 2025-26, which are expected to be quite large.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected the canola carryover for 2025-26 to be 2.76 million tonnes, up from 1.6 million in 2024-25. The estimate for exports is 8.2 million for the current marketing year versus 9.33 million the previous year.

As long as the Middle East war continues, Tryhuk said the premium in canola will remain.

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“They have nudged up a little bit,” he said, citing December barley at C$270 per tonne delivered Lethbridge.

“Right now to trade barley at C$275 is pretty close to impossible for January-February-March,” he added, noting it’s C$285 for April-May-June.

“Most of it is being bought between traders. Feedlots and end users just don’t seem to want to have anything to with it,” Haley continued. “Maybe they will someday.”

Previously, Haley said demand from feedlots was pushing up feed prices as they brought in more cattle.

Besides lackluster demand, he said farmers have been largely unwilling to part with their grain, especially barley and wheat.

“It’s hard to get a farmer to sell barley and wheat at a price the end user wants to pay,” Haley commented, suggesting trade is likely going to remain slow until the New Year.

He complimented the grain companies for the export business they have achieved so far in 2025/26.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported cumulative wheat exports of 7.83 million tonnes as of Nov. 30, up more than 13 per cent from a year ago. Barley exports reached 1.16 million tonnes for an increase of nearly 34 per cent. Haley said such needs to continue in light of the larger-than-expected Prairie harvest.

Statistics Canada issued its latest production report on Dec. 4, pegging 2025/25 barley production at 9.73 million tonnes, compared to 8.14 million the previous year. The Canadian all wheat crop of 39.95 million tonnes set a new production record.

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For September, total Canadian exports worldwide were nearly 3.71 million tonnes compared to 3.87 million the same month a year ago. At two months into the 2025/26 crop year, Canadian licensed facilities shipped out about 5.86 million tonnes versus 6.77 million the previous September.

Trade action by China

Trade action taken by China against Canada generated notable declines in the former’s canola and pea imports. Currently, Beijing has its 75.8 per cent tariff on China’s intake of Canadian canola seed along with 100 per cent levies on canola oil and meal as well as yellow peas.

That has seen China’s purchases of canola seed from Canada tumble to a mere 113,900 tonnes compared to more than 1.4 million a year ago. Peas held at zero while those imports were 233,000 tonnes the previous September. Added to that, China’s imports of Canadian lentils were also at zero versus 20,700 tonnes last September.

India’s about-face

A sudden about-face in Indian trade policy will set Canadian pea exports to the country on a downward slide. As October wrapped up, the Indian government announced it would impose a 30 per cent tariff on its yellow pea imports effective Nov. 1.

Although rumours of such a move began circulating in September, the Indian government remained on course to maintain its latest duty-free period until March 2026. Reports said pressure from the country’s sizeable farm lobby pressured the government into an earlier-than-expected change as to prop up domestic prices.

India imported 397,500 tonnes of peas from Canadian licensed facilities during September, up from 387,100 a year ago. The government said the duty will apply to yellow pea imports dated after Nov. 1, so any sharp drop in Canadian exports to India won’t be seen in the CGC’s report for a few months.

Despite India having a 10 per cent surcharge on its lentil imports, those from Canada soared to 173,100 tonnes as opposed to 38,000 a year ago.

Exports

Select Canadian grain, oilseed and pulse exports, September-September, in thousands of metric tonnes (Source CGC):

Commodity    2025/2026    2024/2025     Change

Wheat          3,163.5      2,886.2     +277.3

Durum            389.6        394.9       +4.7

Oats             206.8        237.6      -30.8

Barley           376.3        297.1      +79.2

Canola           726.1      1,790.4   -1,064.3

Soybeans          86.6        103.5      -16.9

Peas             625.9        637.5      -11.6

Corn              11.6        286.0     -274.4

Lentils          253.1        124.0     +129.1

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Why it matters: Freezing fee increases helps the bottom-line of Canadian farmers

Expressing the CGC’s commitment “to being part of the success and sustainability of Canadian agriculture,” Chief Commissioner David Hunt said, “we recognize the grain sector is going through a period of economic stress and want to do our part to keep costs down while ensuring we continue to deliver results to producers and industry.”

The CGC previously announced it would use surplus funds to cover expected operating shortfalls until 2027, with the latest announcement extending that period of frozen fees until April 1, 2028. “In support of the Government’s priority to spend less on operations, the Canadian Grain Commission is also committing to find and implement cost-saving measures ahead of potential fee changes,” said the news release.

The CGC operates as a revolving fund, charging service fees to fund most of its operations. Currently, fees are not sufficient to cover costs.

After completing a review of its costs and fees in 2024, the CGC found that current fee levels will not cover operating costs going forward.

The CGC has used accumulated surplus funds to manage the growing gap between lower-than-projected revenue and increasing costs since 2021.

Successive years of surplus draw are projected to reduce the available balance from C$156 million in 2021 to approximately C$57 million by March 31, 2028. This includes $40 million previously set aside as an operating contingency, said the release.

The CGC will consult with stakeholders before making any future fee updates.

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In a note pinned to the top of the program’s official website, the CGC noted that the strike was causing mail delays with the program.

Farmers were urged to, if possible, deliver their samples directly to the CGC, either at their head office in downtown Winnipeg, another CGC office or service centre, or another approved drop off site.

Service centres are located in British Columbia (Prince Rupert), Alberta (Calgary); Saskatchewan (Saskatoon and Weyburn), Manitoba (Churchill), Ontario (Thunder Bay and Hamilton) and Québec (Baie-Comeau and Québec City). Western and eastern regional offices can be found in Vancouver and Montréal, respectively. A full list, phone numbers and addresses can be found on the CGC’s webpage through the Government of Canada website.

“Please contact the office or service centre you’re visiting to confirm they have a sample drop off box available,” the website advises.

Besides CGC offices, drop off sites have been arranged at the following locations:

• BroadGrain Commodities Inc. – Dafoe, Sask.
• Bunge – Lethbridge County, Alta.
• All Paterson Grain elevators in Alberta, Saskatchewan or Manitoba
• Sakai Spice – Lethbridge, Alta.

Farmers may also choose to keep their sample until the strike ends, the CGC said.

On Oct. 10, Canada Post said that mail service would resume after the Thanksgiving long weekend, as they moved to rotating, rather than nationwide, strikes.

The last day to mail samples is Nov. 30, 2025. Dec. 31, 2025 is the last day for any samples to be included in this year’s Harvest Sample Program.

Testing for quality

The cross-country Harvest Sample Program is a voluntary initiative for testing a host of quality factors across a range of crops.

For each sample, inspectors provide unofficial grade and quality results at no charge, including:

• Falling number for wheat and rye,
• Vomitoxin (deoxynivalenol or DON) levels for wheat, corn, barley and oats,
• Dockage assessment on canola and mustard seed,
• Protein content on barley, beans, chickpeas, lentils, oats, peas and wheat,
• Oil, protein and chlorophyll content for canola,
• Oil and protein content and iodine value for flaxseed, and
• Oil and protein for mustard seed and soybeans.

A CGC inspection supervisor said producer participants appear to be taking the inconvenience in stride.

“There hasn’t been a lot of complaints or anything. I haven’t heard one complaint,” said Judy Elias with the Weyburn, Sask., service centre.

“We’re all used to strikes, so there’s just new ways to do old business.”

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CGC grain inspector Chris Fleury said that durum wheat appears to be particularly affected by the wet conditions.

Sprouting in durum wheat kernels lowers the quality of the grain for pasta and couscous makers, who are major customers in North America, Italy and North Africa. Mildew can also lower quality.

More than half of the world’s durum exports come from Canada.

Statistics Canada on September 17 predicted a Canadian durum crop of 6.53 million metric tons, which would be the largest since 2020’s 6.57 million.

“We almost had perfect harvest conditions” since 2020 until this year, Fleury said.

Late season rainfall has boosted production but may have impacted quality. Dry summers from 2020 through 2024 have resulted in smaller crops, with 2021’s 3 million tons the smallest since 2010. However, dry conditions have also meant a high quality crop, with limited damage from the wetness that can result in sprouting and mildew.

Thousands of farmer-supplied samples of crops have started arriving at the Canadian Grain Commission, which analyzes the quality of Canada’s major crops. It is early in that process and will take weeks to get a full sense of what is coming off Prairie fields.

While about two-thirds of the Prairies have not had major harvest delays due to rain, farmers in areas including southeastern Saskatchewan, which produce millions of tons of cereal grains like spring wheat, durum, oats and barley, have often had to postpone harvesting their crops in September, hoping drier weather will soak up some of the wetness in the crop. Spring wheat in eastern Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba could also be affected by the damp conditions, Fleury said.

Millions of acres of crops on the eastern third of the Prairies are still standing uncut or lying in swaths due to frequent rains from late August through September.

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The Redwood Group LLC and The Redwood Commodities Group ULC have both been listed as “Grain dealer licence no longer held” on the commission’s website.

The Redwood Group, which is based in Mission, Kansas, has locations in Alberta, Saskatchewan and southern Ontario, according to its website. The company deals in food and feed ingredients, grain merchandising, energy and logistics.

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“If we do not show signs of demand rationing, we could take a slow, steady climb to $700 (per tonne),” Speiss said about the July canola contract.

Depends on CGC reports

Conversely, if canola supplies tighten further than expected, then prices will spike much more quickly. He said that largely depends on the weekly and monthly reports from the Canadian Grain Commission.

Should the CGC’s weekly reports continue to show strong exports and domestic use, then demand rationing becomes a major factor. Also, he said the commission’s monthly report will highlight the amount of canola exported to China.

On April 17, the CGC listed canola exports at 7.38 million tonnes with 16 weeks left in the 2024/25 marketing year. The same day, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada held its to export estimate of 7.50 million tonnes.

Difference between StatCan, USDA on Canadian canola

There have been rumblings within the trade that Statistics Canada is one million to 1.50 million tonnes short on its canola production figure of 17.86 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the United States Department of Agriculture has kept to its estimate of 18.80 million tonnes through a number of monthly oilseed reports.

Until it’s confirmed demand rationing occurs, Speiss said the canola market will trade sideways.

He pointed to a few outside influences that could weigh on canola values. One has been the Canadian dollar which jumped to more than 72 U.S. cents. Another would be a sharp increase in farmer selling.

“But I don’t see a huge selloff (in canola futures),” Speiss stressed.

He also pointed to the “chatter about China” and there possibly being a trade deal between it and the U.S. down the road. That he said would support U.S. soybeans with spillover coming into canola.

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This is the largest compensation payout in the history of the Safeguards for Grain Farmers Program.

The commission said 78 eligible claims worth more than $17 million were paid after the company’s licences were revoked last August.

Purely Canada Foods Corp., a division of Above Food, had grain dealer and primary elevator licences in Saskatchewan at Avonlea, Kindersley and Lajord.

It had posted a security bond of $35 million with the grain commission, but the organization said it couldn’t pay multiple claims because deliveries had occurred outside of the eligibility period.

“The Canadian Grain Commission is advocating for producers still owed money and encouraging them to seek payment directly from the company,” it said.

Producers are eligible within 90 days from the date of grain delivery or within 30 days from the date a cash purchase ticket or cheque was issued to them. The lesser time period applies. They must contact the commission within these periods to be eligible.

Those who request payment deferrals are eligible for compensation for 90 days after delivery but are not eligible if they receive a cheque post dated for more than 30 days later.

Since 1981, the program has paid out in 35 cases. The second-highest payout to date was $5.6 million to 126 producers in 2021-22. Those claimants received 80 percent of their total claim against W.A. Grain & Pulse Solutions.

Above Food Ingredients announced March 2 that Royal Bank of Canada had submitted an application for receivership for Purely Canada, which is described as a subsidiary of Above Food and four affiliated guarantor subsidies.

“PCFC has been operating in a limited capacity over the past six months as the entity has been working with the Canadian Grain Commission to meet relicensing requirements,” the news release said.

“PCFC and RBC agreed on a two-week period to negotiate the terms of a forbearance agreement, and management expects to reach a resolution with RBC within the two-week period.”

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Patty Rosher, who was appointed to the role in February 2021, said things turned south in September 2022 when Agriculture Canada’s director general of human resources informed her that she was being investigated for allegations of inappropriate behaviour.

“I felt queasy. I racked my brain for possible transgressions,” she said in a recent blog she posted on Substack.

The grain commission was contacted for this story but said it does not publicly discuss human resource issues involving current or former employees.

Former CGC chief commissioner Doug Chorney was also contacted but did not respond in time to meet publication deadlines.

Rosher claims she was given a list of 12 transgressions.

The first alleged that she met with external stakeholders and inquired about grain contracts during a vacation in Saskatchewan in September 2021 without advising the commission.

The second was that in February 2022 she asked the commission’s chief grain inspector how cleanliness is assessed in canola and requested confidential information related to dockage levels from harvest sample and export data.

Rosher noted that grain contracts were a hot topic at the time due to a crop failure.

“Some farmers were speculating that canola was coming off the field cleaner than it was getting loaded onto ships and were questioning the CGC’s oversight,” she said in her blog.

“How can me looking into these issues be inappropriate?”

Rosher did not detail the other 10 allegations but said that in January 2023 she received the preliminary findings of an investigator’s report showing that all the allegations were unfounded.

“Ya, no kidding,” she wrote in her blog.

She received the “heavily redacted” final report in June 2024, noting that 163 of the 211 pages of the report were scanned from Chorney’s notebook.

“On an almost daily basis, he had been making notes about me, ranging from petty observations to wild conspiracy theories to outright misrepresentations of my work ethic and abilities,” said Rosher.

An entry on Aug. 10, 2022, noted that Rosher was dressed in “low quality cotton pants, open toe sandals [sic] and a sleeveless top.”

“I find her to be unprofessional and awkward in public situations,” wrote Chorney.

Rosher alleges that her relationship with Chorney was strained almost from the beginning. The two parties agreed to mediation in early 2022, she said, but the process failed.

She further pondered where her employer was throughout the dispute.

The grain commission’s human resources department refused to meet with her, directing her to instead meet with Agriculture Canada’s human resource department, she further said.

Rosher claims she has been in a “mostly one-sided” email exchange with Agriculture Canada since June 2024. The department keeps promising to respond but never follows through.

She contacted the Privy Council’s Office and says she was told the organization is not mandated to provide support to individual governor-in-council (GIC) appointees.

She hired a lawyer but was told there are no possible avenues of redress.

She also claims that she is unable to file a workplace harassment complaint because as a GIC appointee, she was not considered an employee of the grain commission.

Rosher could file a complaint with the Canadian Human Rights Commission but said gender discrimination would be hard to prove.

She claims the the grain commission’s investigation was deeply flawed and wonders if it played a role in her unsuccessful bid to become chief commissioner in the summer of 2024.

“It couldn’t have helped,” said Rosher.

Former assistant commissioner claims harassment at Canadian Grain Commission

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