High prices for the seed led to nearly double the acres planted for the 2022-23 marketing year at 556,000, compared to 289,000 the previous year. As a result, 177,000 tonnes were produced in Canada in 2022, more than the previous two years combined (161,000).

Walter Dyck, the Lethbridge-based general manager of Olds Products’ seed division, said this year’s mustard seed harvest went well with the help of more typical weather conditions in Western Canada last summer as well as dry conditions in October.

“Everything that was ready to be harvested or needed to be harvested (came) off. From that standpoint, it was good,” Dyck said, adding that while Alberta had its best year since 2018, areas in southwestern Saskatchewan struggled with drought and other problems.

“The yield was quite a disappointment for many growers just given the lack of rainfall and some of the larger growing areas like southwest Saskatchewan had grasshopper and flea beetle issues as well,” he said.

Dyck also said that brown and Oriental mustard seed usually have higher yields than the more widely grown yellow mustard seed and 2022 was no different.

Demand for mustard seed has stayed steady, with Canada expected to export 110,000 tonnes during the 2022-23 marketing year according to AAFC, only 4,000 more than the previous year. The same increase in tonnes is expected for domestic use at 22,000 tonnes.

Dyck said unlike most crops, demand is unlikely to change no matter the price.

“For many mustard users, there is no substitute for mustard. The price doesn’t affect how much is used,” he said.

The high-delivered bid for yellow mustard is $1.20/lb., five cents higher than the previous month, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. For brown mustard, the high-delivered bid increased by 14 cents/lb. at $1.15. For Oriental mustard, the high-delivered bid was $1.20/lb., a monthly rise of 19 cents. Yellow mustard is steady from one year ago, while brown mustard declined by five cents/lb. and Oriental mustard rose by 35 cents/lb.

While carryout stocks are set to be replenished by this year’s harvest — from 6,000 tonnes at the end of 2021-22 to a projected 60,000 tonnes this marketing year — prices remain very high.

“I think there’s a realization that yields in some areas were not good and given the fact there was no surplus from (2021-22), I think there was a realization that perhaps whoever’s buying at those higher spot levels, they’re coming in hoping to avoid what happened last year which was a steady increase in the spot market through these months and into the following year,” Dyck said.

“Given the additional acres (this year), the supply is there, but the market is being bid up simply because there doesn’t seem to be as many sellers as there are buyers at this time.”

However, Dyck believes prices will stabilize in the coming months as mustard buyers realize there are sufficient stocks.

“I don’t believe that we’ll see spot prices continue to move higher to get to the end of the year and into early 2023,” he said. “Unless there’s a signal in the market that contract acres for 2023 are not shaping up to be close to the 500,000-acre mark for Canada. It’s quite important Canada gets up to that number again.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Yellow mustard in Western Canada has a high-delivered bid of $1.61/lb., up 10 cents from last month and $1.18 higher than last year, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data.

Over the past month, the high-delivered bid for brown mustard went up 34 cents, to $1.85/lb. ($1.46 higher than last year), and Oriental mustard was up nine cents at $1.10/lb. (up 77 cents from a year ago).

Canada’s mustard production for 2021-22 was estimated at 50,000 tonnes by Statistics Canada, nearly half the production from the previous year, due to severe drought in the Prairies.

As a result, carry-out stocks are forecast to decline 88 per cent to only 5,000 tonnes, according to the latest estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Last December, Canada’s total mustard stock was only at 47,000 tonnes, according to Statistics Canada.

Walter Dyck, the Lethbridge-based general manager for Olds Products’ seed division, said despite lower supply, demand for mustard is constant.

“Mustard has very high inelastic demand. Although demand doesn’t change from one year to the next regardless of price, the customers need mustard. There is no substitute for mustard,” he said.

Canada, typically one of the world’s largest exporters of mustard seed, has enough mustard to satiate demand, he said. However, countries which purchase Canadian mustard are now looking elsewhere, such as the U.S., to increase their own supply.

“Those countries that import the mustard, they’re taking efforts to secure their requirements, and I think that will include buying from other mustard exporters,” he said.

Despite the tightening supply of mustard, Rick Mitzel, executive director for the Saskatchewan Mustard Development Commission (SaskMustard), believes the industry will be in good shape this marketing year due to rising prices. Most Canadian mustard seed is grown in the province.

“(The industry) is strong. We have a good group of loyal growers and that helps us,” he said. “I think this coming year we’ll see a few more acres go into mustard than there probably has been over the past two or three years. I think mustard will be quite profitable this coming year.”

Mitzel also gave a “conservative estimate” of 350,000 mustard seed acres in Saskatchewan this year and added that while yellow mustard is still predominantly what’s grown, demand for brown mustard is on the rise.

“Our brown mustard goes to Europe and our Oriental mustard goes over to Asia, generally speaking. It seems like the world demand for mustard has increased over the last five years. So we are trying to capture that demand with our Canadian product,” he said.

Dyck also agreed rising prices can lead to more mustard seed acres in Canada, but the crop still faces competition from other commodities with rising prices. He also warned buyers might choose to stay away from a scarce product such as Canadian mustard.

“I do see an increase in mustard acres in Canada, but not in a very large irrational way,” Dyck said. “(An increase) will be a lot more measured.”

Canadian farmers seeded 309,000 acres of mustard in 2021-22, with an early forecast from AAFC calling for planted area near 370,000 acres in 2022-23.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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In 2020, about 256,500 acres of mustard seed were planted, down about 36 per cent from the previous year.

Walter Dyck, seed division manager for Olds Products, mentioned it’s the second time in 20 years that seeded area has dropped below 300,000 acres across Canada.

“Growers didn’t get the signal to put mustard in the ground,” Dyck said, as comparably higher commodity prices pushed producers to allocate acres to lentils or canola instead.

By next summer, mustard seed reserves are expected to dwindle, as producers have favoured higher-priced commodities over mustard seed in recent years.

“That takes mustard out of the rotation. So there will be very low, if any, reserves on farms,” he said.

Last week, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released a report detailing supply and demand estimates for the upcoming year. The report forecast mustard seed ending stocks for 2020-21 at only 10,000 tonnes, down from the previous year when ending stocks totalled 61,000 tonnes.

Low acreage and expectation of tight stocks have given spot prices a boost, with yellow mustard seed around 40 cents/lb., and brown mustard seed around 30 cents. Higher prices are expected to entice producers to plant more mustard seed in the upcoming growing year.

“Demand hasn’t changed much, so it’s just supply,” said Dyck.

Yields have varied significantly across the Prairies.

“That’s nothing new,” Dyck said, explaining that the timing and amount of rain are always significant factors.

Summer storms accounted for some production losses, though yields are still expected to top out at around 1,000 lbs. per acre in Alberta and 800 lbs. per acre in Saskatchewan, where the bulk of Canada’s mustard seed is grown.

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“Yellow mustard started firming up after harvest,” said Walter Dyck of Olds Products.

Poor conditions and quality concerns in the fall provided some of the support at that time, with top end bids still holding around 40 cents/lb.

Brown prices were also firm following harvest, but have backed away slightly to trade in the 27-28 cents/lb. area after data came out showing higher-than-expected brown mustard acres, according to Dyck.

“The signal is that yellow could use some acres this year,” he said, but added “the market is definitely saying ‘we have enough brown.'”

While yellow mustard prices may be somewhat encouraging, Dyck said price increases above current levels were unlikely, as the United States had a good crop despite some harvest issues in North Dakota.

Canada seeded about 400,000 acres of mustard in 2019-20, producing 135,000 tonnes, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada data. Early estimates for 2020-21 predict slight increases in area and yields, taking total production to 145,000 tonnes.

Dyck agreed total mustard acres would probably be similar on the year, with a shift toward more yellow mustard and less brown.

Dyck said the lack of consistency in mustard yields discouraged some growers from the crop, especially as average canola yields continue to grow. He was optimistic a new hybrid variety, now under review by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, would help on that front when it becomes commercially available in 2022.

Dyck also estimated one to two per cent of the 2019 mustard crop remains to be harvested. The quality of what comes off in the spring harvest will depend on what it looked like before the winter set in.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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In September, the agency estimated Canadian mustard would total about 141,000 tonnes. However, due to challenging growing conditions and a slight reduction in acreage, the StatsCan estimates released Friday were revised downward to 134,600 tonnes. In 2018, Canadian farmers produced 173,600 tonnes of mustard.

Walter Dyck of Olds Products said there was “wild variation in yield” across Canada due to a dry growing season across most of the Canadian Prairies, which brought down average yields significantly.

In turn, spot prices for yellow and brown mustard have increased. Yellow mustard, which was around 35 to 37 cents/lb. a few months ago, is now around 40 cents per pound.

“That’s quite significant for the market to turn that corner, from the 30s into the 40s,” Dyck said.

Brown mustard spot bids have increased only slightly to 31 cents/lb., after being around 30 cents/lb. for most of the summer.

Dyck expected prices to remain steady due to the significantly reduced production. However, 2020 new-crop prices will depend on “where the market feels prices will have to be.

“If those prices are seen as fairly soft, we’ll probably see an uptick in that spot price.”

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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“It has to be absolutely flattened,” said mustard buyer Walter Dyck of Olds Products at Lethbridge on the effect of the recent snow on the mustard crop.

He estimated about 50 per cent of the country’s mustard crop was still unharvested ahead of the snow that hit southern Alberta and Saskatchewan over the last weekend of September, as a cool and damp September had already caused delays.

“Everything just combined to give us a late harvest, and that has been prolonged,” he said.

“There’s a significant amount that’s out there, and there are definitely concerns about the quality,” Dyck said, adding that the moisture was causing sprouting — a situation not seen in the mustard market for many years.

However, “we had enough that came off early, and there are good stories for this year’s crop as well,” said Dyck.

“There’s no doubt there will be some blending,” he said of the lower-quality mustard likely to come. In addition to the better mustard that came off earlier in the year, he said there was also a good carryover of yellow mustard from 2018.

The likelihood of lost yields and quality downgrades has not yet shown itself in the cash market, with a large portion of the country’s mustard grown under contract.

Yellow mustard is currently priced around 36-37 cents per bushel, while brown mustard bids top out at 30 cents, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data.

In addition to the latest harvest problems, mustard acres were also lower to begin with this year. As a result, “signals are telling me that we’ll see spot prices climb off their lows and want to move higher,” said Dyck. “The big question is just getting it off.”

StatsCan currently estimates Canadian mustard production for 2019 at 141,200 tonnes, which would be down from 173,600 grown the previous year.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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Yellow mustard is currently topping out at around 36 cents/lb., while brown mustard bids are in the 30- to 31-cent range, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. New-crop bids are about two cents lower on average.

“I don’t think growers are getting a lot of market signals to put mustard in the ground again this year based on current spot pricing,” said Walter Dyck, general manager with Olds Products.

“At some point, someone has to come to the market,” said Dyck, noting a slight disconnect between the low spot prices and the fact that supplies were likely still on the tight side.

Canadian farmers seeded 503,800 acres of mustard in 2018, up from 385,000 the previous year and the second-largest acreage base of the past decade, according to Statistics Canada data.

“The (acreage) recovery was mainly on brown and oriental mustard, not so much on yellow mustard,” said Dyck.

Looking to 2019 planting intentions, he expected to see a rebalancing back towards more yellow acres at the expense of brown mustard. However, total mustard acreage will likely be steady to lower, given the lack of aggressive pricing signals.

While Canada remains the world’s largest mustard exporter and is known for its quality, increased production in other growing regions mean that domestic stocks that were once considered tight may no longer be so.

The U.S. has increased yellow mustard production over the past three years, and typically gets higher yields than in Canada, said Dyck. Eastern Europe is also becoming more self-sufficient on both yellow and brown mustard production.

In addition, good blending capabilities in Europe allow mustard processors there to easily bring in Russian or Ukrainian supplies when the price is right.

Looking closer to home, the release of Canada’s new food guide, with its focus on healthier eating, could conceivably bode well for mustard as a low-calorie, high-protein condiment – especially compared to mayonnaise.

However, Dyck said, “we have to remember that mustard goes on hot dogs.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a division of Glacier FarmMedia specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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Jamie Stelmachowich of Besco Grain Ltd. at Homewood, Man. said despite the cold, wet weather, most mustard has been graded higher at No. 1 or 2.

“The seed was turned already. If it was green and it got cold, you would have seen a lot threes and fours out of it,” he said.

Richard Marleau, a farmer near Ponteix, Sask. and board chair of Mustard 21 in Saskatoon, said mustard, being an oilseed, can better handle poor weather.

“Not that it wouldn’t have any impact (on mustard), it would weather quite a bit better than a cereal or a pulse,” he said.

Prices for mustard are currently around 35 cents/lb. for yellow, with brown mustard at 30 cents/lb. and oriental mustard going for 25 cents/lb., according to Marleau.

Stelmachowich said mustard prices were doing fairly well until February 2017, when yellow mustard was about 41 cents/lb. and dropped to 36 cents/lb.

“That’s got to do with the supply and demand and other crops being so low. Our competition is lentils and peas.”

Despite the prices, mustard production in Canada increased in 2018 according to Statistics Canada. This year more than 386,400 lbs. of mustard were produced, compared to about 267,800 last year and well short of the 519,400 lbs. produced two years ago.

Nearly all of mustard grown in Canada comes from Saskatchewan, with 74 per cent of this year’s crop and Alberta with almost 25 per cent. Other provinces do grow mustard, but their crop sizes are minimal.

— Glen Hallick writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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“It was probably my only crop that is going to make me a little bit of money,” he said.

He’s still waiting to hear about grading based on the samples he shipped off to the lab, but he’s optimistic.

“Sometimes that can give you a nasty surprise if you’ve got wild mustard contamination or something you didn’t expect, but I’m hoping that all comes back well.”

He said he has contracted the first 10 bushels at 38 cents/lb., and current market prices are sitting at about 32 to 34 cents/lb.

“So at those numbers, that will probably bring a bit of a profit above other crops,” he said.

Hursh, who farms northwest of Swift Current and is also executive director for the Saskatchewan Mustard Development Commission, said mustard production overall in southwestern Saskatchewan appears to be below average.

The main mustard-growing areas of southwestern and south-central Saskatchewan were extremely dry this year, similar to a year ago, although Hursh said he did not expect the crop would be as bad as it was in 2017.

“But I think we’ll be off our long-term average.”

Statistics Canada on Aug. 31 estimated mustard production this year at 175,300 tonnes, with 130,100 tonnes of that in Saskatchewan and 43,700 tonnes in Alberta.

That compares to 121,000 tonnes nationally in 2017: 94,500 in Saskatchewan and 27,100 in Alberta

The 2013-17 five-year national average is 166,200 tonnes for all types of mustard. StatsCan did not provide specific information for different types.

Matthew Bernard, an oilseed specialist with the Saskatchewan government, said the mustard harvest is almost complete, with variability in plant maturity and patchiness showing up in many fields.

“It’s one of those cases where there has been better, there’s been worse; overall it’s been OK. Not much different than other crops in terms of what they’re dealing with environmentally,” he said.

Increased acres compared to last year might be affecting prices, he said, but added there’s been good demand from international buyers.

Information supplied by Prairie Ag Hotwire shows yellow mustard, delivered to the elevator, currently priced at 34-35 cents/lb., brown mustard at 31-31.5 cents and oriental mustard at 19-26 cents.

The 2018-19 yellow mustard crop has traded in a range between 31.5 and 43 cents/lb. over the past year. Brown mustard has been priced between 29.5 and 46 cents during the same period, while oriental has ranged from 19 to 34.5 cents.

— Terry Fries writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“Mustard was offering some profit potential compared to some of the other options out there, so acres expanded a bit,” said Richard Marleau, chair of the Saskatchewan Mustard Development Commission.

Statistics Canada’s acreage report released at the end of April pegged intended mustard area at 438,000 acres, which would be up from the 385,000 seeded in 2017. Yields were hurt by drought, and total production only came in at 122,000 tonnes in 2017.

Recent rains in Saskatchewan brought much-needed moisture to many areas, but Marleau said some key mustard-growing regions in the southwest missed out on the moisture.

“If the growing conditions come around, there could be lots of mustard” in 2018, Marleau said, adding that “if they don’t, it could be tight again.”

In addition to the dryness concerns, he said flea beetles were also causing problems and leading to reseeding in some cases.

Spot bids for old-crop mustard are now topping out at about 33 cents/lb. for yellow mustard, 33 cents for brown and 28 cents for oriental, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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