It will be the second survey-based acreage report for 2024-25 from StatCan after the first was released in March. Since then, much of the Prairies received normal to above-normal amounts of precipitation while cooler temperatures have delayed development in most crops.

Nevertheless, the trade is not anticipating any major revisions compared to the March report, including MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville.

“I’m not necessarily expecting dramatic changes from what expectations were in the springtime,” he said.

StatCan’s March estimate for canola acres would have been closer to the lower end of trade estimates for the June report, but the area will very likely not reach 22 million.

“I suspect that the interest in growing canola continues to be there if there’s an extended outlook of strong crush capacity for the year ahead. If we have an emergent energy market for vegetable oil, then canola growers will probably be interested in that,” Jubinville added.

Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg also doesn’t expect major changes to canola acres compared to months earlier.

“I think there were losses in (Manitoba’s) Interlake. I think there were price-incentivised increases in acres in Saskatchewan and Alberta. It could be a bit of a wash. It could be a little bit higher than the 21.4 (million acres) in the last report,” he said. “I think the real focus is going to be yields. That’s what the trade is looking at right now.”

Similarly, all wheat area has a near-equal chance of either an expansion or contraction of acres compared to the March report. Ken Ball of Ventum Financial Corp. of Winnipeg said he didn’t hear about any major shifts in acreage from his clients, but his projection for wheat acres resides at the higher end of estimates.

“For a while there, pushing into springtime through April and May, wheat prices were really perking up,” Ball said. “There was a lot of chatter about (quality) problems in Russia that might have prompted some extra wheat acres. Not a lot, but a few.”

Jerry Klassen of Resilient Commodity Analysis in Winnipeg estimates between 19.6 million and 19.7 million acres of spring wheat, a slight increase from the March report. However, some of those acres would be taken from durum, which he pegged at approximately 6.1 million.

“I think the durum acreage at 6.344 (million) in March was probably a shade too high,” he said. “I think a lot of farmers realized that after the report … We’re not going to see that bump in acreage as we thought we were going to see earlier in March.”

Klassen expects a decline in oats acreage due to growers looking at other crops, while also anticipating more barley acres as growers tout the crop’s weather-resilient qualities. After the wet spring on the Prairies, he also felt bearish about soybean, lentil and pea acres.

Just like in previous StatCan acreage reports, concerns remain that the data was collected months ahead of time, affecting the accuracy of the agency’s projections. The March estimates were determined using numbers collected in December and January.

“I’m always uncertain as to whether (collecting data months in advance) is the best way to do a survey,” Jubinville said. “(But) this number is obviously going to carry a greater degree of accuracy to what the real number is relative to the first survey done on Christmastime.”

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Updated renewable fuel targets released by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency failed to live up to expectations, sparking a speculative selloff in soyoil.

While the limit-down move in soyoil futures on Wednesday would normally weigh on canola, the Canadian oilseed lagged soyoil to the upside while it was rising earlier in the month and spreading between the two commodities was seeing speculators selling soyoil and buying back short positions in canola, according to Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

He added that “canola is still looking relatively cheap as an oilseed.”

Declining crop ratings for soybeans in the United States were underpinning the futures there, but Ball said the canola crop was in better shape overall.

“There are still some areas of concern, but canola condition ratings have improved in the past week,” Ball said, noting many dry areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan had received rain.

Statistics Canada releases updated acreage estimates on Wednesday next week (June 28) and Ball expected farmers likely kept with their initial intentions for the most part of seeding about 21.6 million acres of canola.

However, the April report was based off data obtained in late December/early January, rather than closer to spring as typically done in the past, which could lead to larger adjustments than usual.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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The increases in those crops will come at the expense of oats, lentils and peas, with intended summerfallow area down to its smallest level on record, StatCan said Wednesday.

StatCan pegged total wheat area in the country at 27 million acres, which would be up by 6.2 per cent on the year. Of that total, durum was forecast to increase by 0.9 per cent at 6.1 million acres, while spring wheat is expected to be up by 7.6 per cent at 19.4 million. Favourable prices and strong demand were said to be tied to the increased wheat intentions.

Canola area is forecast to increase by 0.9 per cent on the year, to 21.6 million acres. That would be in line with the five-year average, but at the lower end of pre-report expectations.

Soybean area in the country is forecast at 5.5 million acres, with corn at 3.7 million acres, for increases of 4.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively. Manitoba is forecast to see the largest increase in soybean plantings, with 1.6 million intended acres, which would be up by 37.3 per cent on the year.

Canadian barley plantings are forecast at 7.1 million acres, which would be up by 0.6 per cent from 2022. Meanwhile, oats area is expected to decline by 22.4 per cent, to 3.1 million acres, as high stocks cut into prices over the past year.

Lentil and pea area is also expected to decline on the year, with expected lentil seedings of four million acres, down by eight per cent, and peas down by 4.6 per cent at 3.2 million acres.

Summerfallow is forecast to hit its lowest level in over 100 years of records, at 1.3 million acres. That compares with two million in 2022.

The latest acreage estimates were based off a survey conducted with 9,500 farmers from December 2022 to January 2023. That marked the first time the acreage intentions were compiled so early, as the data has historically been collected in March.

“This change is part of the ongoing AgZero initiative within the agriculture division at Statistics Canada, which aims to assess the feasibility of using alternative methods to produce quality estimates,” StatCan said in a release Wednesday.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s acreage report as of April 2023. Pre-report expectations provided for comparison purposes. Figures are in millions of acres.

* – “All wheat” includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat remaining after winterkill.

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Only lentils saw an increase, rising slightly by 0.4 per cent from 2021-22 to now 4.32 million. Meanwhile, dry peas fell 11.8 per cent at 3.37 million aces, with edible beans down 32.1 per cent at 297,000.

Chickpeas pulled back 4.2 per cent at 177,800 acres and fababeans dropped 45.7 per cent at 72,300.

However, Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro stressed a notable element in the StatCan surveys: their timing meant the numbers provided by farmers are what they hoped to plant in 2022 and may not be what they actually seeded.

“We will not know further acreage-loss changes until December, but I believe that total number is roughly 1.5 million acres,” Jubinville said.

He spread that 1.5 million mostly between spring wheat and canola each, accounting for 500,000 acres, and expects dry peas to lose another 100,000. Pulses such as lentils and chickpeas were seeded in a timely fashion, so he’s not expecting any notable changes for those.

Other pulses, such as fababeans and edible beans, may have lost some planted acres due to the soggy soil conditions throughout the Red River Valley in Manitoba, he said.

That said, he pointed to another factor on which the markets will focus.

“The market sentiment will be all about yields, getting bigger or smaller than previous ideas,” he said.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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While there are still plenty of areas of concern, the rain has taken some of the weather premium out of the market, said Jonathon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions.

In addition to the improving moisture situation, canola was also pressured by the ongoing diplomatic dispute with China.

News of China stopping imports of Canadian meat “puts an additional exclamation mark on our issues with that country, and we’re probably not optimistic of a resolution anytime soon based on the tone,” said Driedger.

“For the time being weather and politics are dominating,” said Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro. He estimated reduced yields in the problem areas of the Prairies would be countered by better conditions elsewhere, keeping yields close to trend lines.

Statistics Canada released updated acreage estimates, pegging the 2019-20 canola crop at 20.951 million acres. That would be down by nearly two million acres from the previous year, and in line with trade estimates.

Jubinville expected crop abandonment would also be down from normal, but with average yields and a continued lack of exports to China, total supplies will still be large.

“The little tweak in acres is a non-factor in the grand scheme of things,” Driedger said, adding “at the end of the day, yields matter a whole lot more than a few acres here and there.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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StatsCan pegged planted Canadian canola area for 2019-20 (August to July) at 20.952 million acres, down by about 300,000 from the March survey and well below the 22.813 million seeded the previous year.

The reduction in canola area “was not super surprising, given how dry it was and some of the lower prices as guys were making seeding decisions,” said market analyst Jonathon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions.

“Acres are always an important issue in determining production, but yield is always the bigger factor,” said Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro, noting attention in the canola market will be focused on weather and trade with China.

For the grains, both analysts felt durum area was a little tighter than average trade guesses, while barley and oats came in at the higher end of expectations.

Total wheat area in the country was pegged at 24.595 million acres, down by roughly one million acres from the March estimate but still above the 24.735 million seeded the previous year.

Of the wheat total, durum area was estimated at 4.894 million, down from the March estimate and well below the 6.185 million in 2018-19. Non-durum spring wheat, at 18.772 million acres, would be up from the 17.31 million planted the previous year.

“Durum has a longer-term optimistic view, from a pricing point of view,” said Jubinville.

“Durum is one of the first crops that goes in the ground, and it’s probably had some irreversible yield damage.”

Jubinville pointed out the prime durum growing area is located right in the heart of the drought area of Saskatchewan, with recent rains likely coming too late for the crop.

StatsCan pegged barley acres at 7.402 million, which would be up by 3.5 per cent from the earlier estimate and roughly one million acres above the 2018-19 level. Driedger said the larger barley area wasn’t surprising, given the solid market at seeding time.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s acreage estimates as of June 11, 2019, in millions of acres. Pre-report expectations are provided for comparison purposes.

* “All wheat” = spring wheat, durum wheat, winter wheat remaining after winterkill

The post StatsCan: Less canola and durum, more barley and oats appeared first on Farmtario.

From a purely economic standpoint, “canola is historically the commodity that pays the bills,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

With disease issues for cereal crops and uncertain demand prospects for pulses, “canola still stands as one of those lone beacons: a commodity that as long as it yields good will probably yield a profit,” he said.

“Farmers are really going into canola and focusing on returns per acre this year,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of Canadian operations with Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Produits in Winnipeg.

Average trade guesses on canola plantings range from 20.3 million to 22.5 million acres, which would compare with the 20.4 million acres seeded in 2016. The previous canola acreage record, 22 million acres, was set in 2012.

“It’s no surprise we’ll see higher canola (acres), but there’s some debate over how much,” said Jon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing. The canola increases won’t be across the board, he added, with Manitoba farmers likely planting more soybeans at the expense of canola.

Most industry participants expect total Canadian wheat area (spring, winter and durum) to be down by at least a million acres from the 23.2 million seeded in 2016, with the largest reduction in durum. After 6.2 million acres of durum seeded in 2016, trade estimates for 2017 range from about 4.8 million to 5.8 million.

Farmers were discouraged with vomitoxin issues last year, and there is a high risk again due to moisture issues, said Klassen.

Durum acres should be down sharply in the “peripheral” durum-growing regions, but may hold steady in the prime areas, he said.

Opinions on pulse crop acres are more divided. A record 5.9 million acres of lentils were seeded in 2016, and early estimates for 2017 range from 3.9 million to 6.1 million acres. Pea acreage estimates are also vary widely, from 3.6 million to 4.8 million acres. That compares with the 4.2 million seeded in 2016.

“There is some uncertainty in the pulses with the whole India situation,” said Klassen, pointing to the unresolved issue over India’s fumigation requirements.

However, he added, farmers are still happy with the returns per acre, low inputs and rotational benefits of incorporating more pulses in their rotations.

Weather issues may still lead to some acreage adjustments over the next six to eight weeks, especially as many fields in Western Canada still have unharvested crops left over from 2016.

In addition, “at the end of the day, weather matters the most,” said Driedger, noting any adjustments in planted area will be overwhelmed by a tweak in yields over the course of the growing season.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @philfw on Twitter.

Table: Pre-report trade guesses ahead of Statistics Canada’s April 21, 2017 report, in millions of acres.

* – All wheat includes winter wheat remaining

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“It’s all about the weather, La Nina and when it arrives,” said Scott Capinegro, president of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Illinois.

If La Nina doesn’t materialize to bring hot and dry weather across the Midwest, he estimated the highs for the summer may already be in by the end of June.

“They say corn is growing like a weed right now,” said Capinegro, noting weather conditions have been relatively favourable, with good rains and warm temperatures.

“You know the saying ‘Feed the bull?’ My saying is ‘Feed the bull, but in 2016 the bull learned how to eat the bear.'”

Both corn and soybeans were oversold right now, he said, but at the same time, “if this heat develops the yields will come down.”

On the other side, if crop-damaging conditions don’t come, the inevitable crash will be large.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its next acreage estimates on June 30, which could provide some nearby direction before attention returns to the weather.

General expectations heading into the USDA report are for corn area to be down from earlier intentions, and soybeans up.

With the technical trends still pointing higher for soybeans and corn, Capinegro said farmers should be selling into the gains.

Current new-crop pricing opportunities are profitable, he said, and “there’s no reason not be at least 30 per cent sold of new crop.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based acreage estimates of the year on Thursday.

“I think we’ll see a surge in pulse acres,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office for Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Products in Winnipeg, expressing the general sentiment across the sector.

“We’ve never seen contracted prices for pulses as high as this year,” added analyst Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing.

Lentil acres are forecast at 4.4 million to as much as 5.5 million acres, which would be a new record even at the low end. Peas are forecast at four million to five million. Last year, Canada saw 3.95 million acres of lentils and 3.68 million acres of peas.

Beyond the pulse crops, attention will be largely focused on wheat and canola.

“The general trend seems to be that farmers are disgruntled with wheat, and the wheat acres will be down a bit,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

U.S. spring wheat acres are already expected to be down considerably on the year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings report, and the question now is whether or not that trend will continue in Canada, said Klassen.

All-wheat area, which includes durum, other spring wheat and winter wheat, is expected to be steady to down by more than two million acres from the 24.111 million acres seeded the previous year. Of that total, durum estimates range from about 5.4 million to six million.

While it likely won’t show up until subsequent reports, Jon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions said the breakdown of the varieties of wheat seeded will be interesting to see.

He expected losses in hard red spring wheat acres will account for most of the reductions in wheat area, with other classes — including prairie spring and soft white wheat — likely up on the year.

For canola, “the market needs to encourage acres, and if we come out similar or slightly lower (on acres) it will be friendly for the market,” said Klassen.

After the 20.095 million acres grown in 2015, expectations for the upcoming crop range from 19.7 million to 21 million acres, with most estimates leaning toward a slight increase.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada on Twitter at @CNSCanada.

Table: Pre-report trade guesses ahead of Statistics Canada’s April 21 intended acreage report, in millions of acres.

* – Includes winter wheat remaining

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The survey was conducted before a drought took hold in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and before frost damage and the resulting need for reseeding in the eastern Prairies, analyst Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing noted.

With the canola crop in particular looking “very uneven,” he said the acreage number will do little in helping determine possible production.

“As important as acres are, yield is twice as important,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada. There was a historical tendency to underestimate canola area in the first report of the year, he said, but thought that may not be the case this year.

In addition, there is usually about a two per cent decline in harvested area compared to seeded area, but the abandoned acres may be considerably larger this year, according to Jubinville.

About 1.5 million acres of canola needed to be reseeded, but “a couple hundred thousand” acres of that area went to other crops instead, said CWB market analyst Bruce Burnett.

Actual harvested canola area will likely drop further still, but that won’t be represented in the June report, he said.

“People shied away from canola on the second-go-round,” said Jerry Klassen, manager for GAP S.A. Grains and Produits in Winnipeg. “I don’t think we’ll see any big surprises, but the market will be extremely sensitive to the canola number.”

Pre-report guesses for canola range from about 19 million to 20.4 million acres, with the majority coming in at the lower end of that scale. That would compare with the 19.4 million acres forecast in the previous report and the year-ago level of 20.3 million.

For wheat, acreage estimates range from 24.2 million to 25.8 million, which compares with the 24.765 million acres forecast in April and the 2014-15 level of 23.835 million.

Of that total, most pre-report guesses were only about 100,000 acres one way or the other from the 5.5 million predicted in April. Canadian farmers seeded 4.75 million acres of durum the previous year.

The barley market will also be watching closely, according to Klassen, as area already came in at the low end of trade guesses in the earlier report.

Pre-report guesses range from about 6.1 million to 6.9 million acres, which compare with the 6.478 million acres forecast in April and the year-ago level of 5.88 million.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

Table: Pre-report trade guesses, in millions of acres. “All wheat” includes remaining winter wheat.

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