Canada’s agri-food sector is well-placed in trade and holds global influence in 2025, says a new report commissioned by MNP.
WHY IT MATTERS: With tariffs threatening farmers and the agri-food sector, improved global trade could signal the development of new markets governments have been encouraging throughout 2025.
The report, compiled by Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, ranks the performance of agri-food sectors across 19 G20 countries and the European Union. It found that Canada’s position has improved in many areas, despite a year marked by the threat of U.S. tariffs.
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This release is the second edition of the report. Matt MacDonald, national leader of food and beverage processing at MNP, said this year’s iteration provides a more definitive way to measure Canada’s development.
“The first year, you’re kind of shooting in the dark. A little bit of, what does this mean? And you don’t have the benefit of indexing to yourself,” MacDonald said. “Going into the second year, we have the benefit of not only indexing to other countries, but we have the ability to look at how we did last year.”
The report said Canada ranks seventh overall in influence, second in trade and geopolitics, and remains in the top 10 in other categories, such as sectoral competitiveness and sustainability. However, the report also highlights issues such as increased retail consolidation, worsening food security, and missed opportunities in food processing.
“I think that Canada is progressing well,” said Sylvain Charlebois, head of the Dalhousie lab. “We are a second-tier country, but we’re at the top of the second tier.”
“There are challenges, of course; Scaling up businesses is not something that Canada does very well.”
One encouraging figure from the report was Canada’s geopolitical positioning. After a year in which Canadian agriculture had to pivot toward new markets, MacDonald said he was surprised to see Canada ranks second.
“I think that it does give hope that we’re moving the needle there for sure,” he said, adding that it can be difficult to capture the full scope of the situation as it continues to unfold.
“Part of that, I think, is on the backs of our strong agriculture sector,” MacDonald explained. “We have a lot to trade. We have a trade surplus of $60 billion, so when you’re that strong of a net exporter, I think you’re gonna have lots of friends.”
Charlebois said the numbers, while encouraging, may not tell the whole story.
“It may have actually been misleading,” he said, “especially for those who are looking for geopolitical force. Certainly, I wouldn’t rank it in the top or second tier on that, but when it comes to connections with the rest of the world, we are in a privileged position.”
He said Canada’s focus should now be on supporting businesses in their global interactions.
“We’re not necessarily taking advantage of some of these deals, so it means that companies aren’t willing to take the risk.”
Charlebois said the government should support processing to help the sector reach its full potential. MacDonald echoed the sentiment, saying Canada’s key problem is exporting primary agricultural products to other countries for value-added processing, resulting in GDP leakage.
MacDonald added this issue was highlighted in last year’s report, though Canada is steadily improving.
“We’re increasing our investment in the agri-food sector from a capital perspective,” MacDonald explained. “But we want to see more.”
Charlebois said one of the best ways to support farmers is through a strong processing sector. “There’s a bit of a deficit there, and that’s kind of the message that we were trying to send here, or at least that’s the outcome of our assessment.”
Retailer competition needed
MacDonald said the movement up four ranks, from 11th to seventh overall in a year, represents an improvement. However, the Canadian sector still lags in some areas, including increased retail consolidation, with the top four retailers going from 65 per cent to 72 per cent control this year over last.
“When you compare that to the United States, it’s significant,” he said. “Their top three retailers … It’s around 50 per cent.”
“If you really wanted to boil it down, 72 per cent of the dollar is going to four retailers. And last year it was 65 per cent. So, we want to see more retailers, less consolidation at the top.”
Canada ranked in the top eight in the report’s six main pillars of influence, except for Retail and Fiscal Regime, where it placed 16th.
This highlights another challenge Canada faces: the report states that one in five Canadians experiences food insecurity. MacDonald suggested that Canada can address this issue by spreading out retail distribution.
“In Canada … if you’re not in Loblaws and Walmart, it’s like you don’t exist, right? And the problem is that if you’re doing $10 million in sales, infrastructure-wise, I don’t think you can even ship to a player that big.”
The report emphasizes the momentum and opportunity to be seized in Canadian agriculture. Charlebois said that momentum is reflected in the sector as farms scale up.
“They’re embracing new technologies,” stated Charlebois. “Frankly, what’s holding the entire supply chain back is manufacturing, not necessarily farmers.”
He said one improvement still needed for Canada is to drop the humility and start sharing the story of its agriculture sector.
“We’re not good at bragging about what we’re doing. We just need to talk, tell our story a little bit better, and not be too Canadian about it.”
