Little variation seen in global grain supply and demand data

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MarketsFarm — Few significant changes appear in the latest monthly supply and demand report from the International Grains Council (IGC), which released its estimates Thursday.

The IGC slightly nudged its estimate of total world grain production from its August estimate of 2.23 billion to September’s 2.227 billion tonnes. The September forecast is 2.1 per cent more than total global production in 2019-20.

The 2020-21 carryover was lowered from August’s 630 million tonnes, to 628.9 million. That’s five per cent lower than the 2019-20 carryout.

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World corn production is to remain on the upswing, according to the council, but by not quite as much in its September report. Global production was reduced from 1.167 billion tonnes to 1.16 billion. In comparison to the amount of corn grown around the world in 2019-20, it makes for a 3.5 per cent increase.

Meanwhile, increased consumption was slated to further reduce corn ending stocks. The IGC cut its forecast from 288.2 million tonnes in its August report to September’s 284.7 million. Compared with 2019-20 ending stocks, that’s a drop of almost 5.3 per cent.

The IGC reduced its forecast for world wheat production by 100,000 tonnes from the previous month’s 763.4 million, to a September estimate of 763.3 million. That’s about 0.14 per cent more than the amount of wheat produced globally in 2019-20.

Wheat carryover remains higher than last year’s 279.2 million tonnes, now at 293.8 million, some 200,000 tonnes more than the IGC called for in August.

Soybean production across the globe is to remain notably higher, but a little lower than what the council forecast last month. The IGC pegged production at 373.4 million tonnes in August, which was lowered to 372.5 million in the September report. That would still make for a jump of 10.1 per cent compared to what was produced in 2019-20.

Carryover was revised to 50 million tonnes from August’s 52.2 million. That, as well, remains higher than 2019-20 ending stocks of 46.9 million tonnes.

The IGC’s next supply and demand estimates are scheduled to be released Oct. 29.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Glen Hallick - MarketsFarm

Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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