The Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) most-active soybean futures contract jumped about three per cent to settle at $12.90 a bushel, its biggest single-day percentage gain since July 13 (all figures US$).

The trade whipsawed over a range of nearly 50 cents, dipping early in the day to $12.50-1/2 and climbing as high as $12.99-3/4. The rally lifted other soy products: CBOT December soyoil rose about 1.2 per cent and December soymeal surged $15.80, more than four per cent.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a monthly report pegged the soybean harvest at 4.104 billion bushels, 42 million fewer bushels than forecast in September and 30 million bushels below an average of analysts’ estimates. USDA also forecast smaller soybean yields, and projected soybean ending stocks holding steady at the September level.

“I think by appearance, this would look avowedly like a bullish report for soybeans,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale.

But he said nothing in the data showed any significant improvement in export demand given competition from Brazil, the globe’s top soybean producer.

“The problem is Brazil already has us beat on price; as we go into the next three months it actually widens, the price discount is even larger in the next two or three months,” he said, and added that he expected the ending stocks number to rise as the harvest proceeded and demand languished.

Corn futures climbed eight cents to settle at $4.96 a bushel, and wheat futures rose almost 2.75 per cent to settle at $5.71-1/2 a bushel.

On Friday, USDA will issue weekly U.S. grain and soy export sales data, one day later than normal.

— Reporting for Reuters by Zachary Goelman in New York City; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) dropped 19 cents, about 1.5 per cent, to settle at $12.52-1/2 a bushel (all figures US$). At one point, it traded down to $12.51, its lowest level on a continuous chart since Dec. 15, 2021.

Grain traders were adjusting positions ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) report, due out Thursday. On average, analysts polled by Reuters expect USDA to trim its forecasts for U.S. soybean and corn production and yields, a move traditionally supportive of prices.

But not all market-watchers are bullish, and some expect the WASDE to show soybean yield and production numbers near the higher end of the range of estimates.

“A number of people are saying it’s the best bean crop that’s ever been raised,” said Clayton Pope, who runs the agriculture risk consultancy Clayton Pope Commodities, in Champaign, Illinois.

He suggested that due to the sometimes-anecdotal reports of a better-than-expected soybean crop, “you have some longs just bailing out of the beans, saying, ‘we’ll just see what this yield is, I’m not so bullish anymore.'”

Demand for U.S. soybeans remains low, but the low prices may mark a turning point. USDA on Wednesday reported export sales of 121,000 metric tonnes of soybeans to buyers in China, and another 213,000 tonnes sold to unknown buyers.

CBOT December wheat prices shed 2-1/2 cents to settle at $5.56 a bushel, the contract’s lowest closing prince since Sept. 29. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the October WASDE report to forecast higher wheat ending stocks than projected in September.

Corn prices climbed 2-1/2 cents to settle at $4.88 a bushel, a hair above the 50-day moving average.

— Reporting for Reuters by Zachary Goelman in New York City; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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Corn prices weakened, and wheat futures fell sharply.

The most-actively traded Chicago Board of Trade soybean contract rose 0.6 per cent to $12.71-1/2 per bushel (all figures US$). In early trading it had fallen to $12.54-1/4, its lowest since December 2021.

“People trading the market right now don’t have a lot of staying power, they’re not building for the long-term,” said Scott Harms, senior ag risk adviser with Archer Financial Services.

He said the choppy trade was caught between technical short-sellers without the leverage to “hold it down,” and not enough bullish news “to put together a large rally.”

Soybean farmers did get a ray of light when the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported export inspections of 1.036 million tons of soybeans for the week ending Oct. 5, the highest since mid-February. The release was marred after USDA was forced to correct even-rosier figures released earlier in the day.

Weekly USDA data showed the soybean harvest 43 per cent complete, slightly ahead of an average of analysts polled by Reuters, with the crop condition declining somewhat to 51 per cent rated “good” or “excellent” compared with 52 per cent in the prior week.

CBOT wheat fell after a short-lived rally in the prior session fuelled by a spike in energy prices. December soft red winter wheat shed 2.5 per cent to settle at $5.57 a bushel.

Traders were adjusting positions ahead of USDA’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) report, due out Thursday.

Corn prices fell 0.6 per cent to $4.85-1/2 a bushel, as traders awaited weekly USDA crop progress data. The report, released after the close, said the corn crop was 34 per cent harvested as of Sunday, in line with estimates.

— Reporting by Zachary Goelman in New York, Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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The most actively traded corn futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled down about 0.8 per cent at $4.88-1/4 a bushel, after climbing to $4.97 overnight (all figures US$). Soybeans rallied to $12.77-1/2 overnight before settling at 12.64-1/4, a loss of about 0.1 per cent.

The bloodiest fighting in years between Israelis and Palestinians that erupted over the weekend sent crude oil prices up more than $3, a rally that briefly lifted agricultural commodities.

“I think the focus also started to shift back to what’s ahead of us here in the U.S.,” said grains analyst Jerry Gidel of Midland Research.

Due to a federal holiday on Monday, a weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on the corn and soybean harvest has been delayed to Tuesday.

On Thursday, USDA will release a monthly grain supply and demand report. Analysts expect USDA to lower its U.S. corn and soybean harvest estimates, and traders are rebalancing their positions ahead of the data.

Soybean prices remain near three-month lows and corn is hovering at lows not seen since January 2021. Both are held in check by weak export demand, exacerbated by a strong dollar .DXY. Despite tightness in U.S. soybean stocks, a steady supply of Brazilian soybeans has held down prices.

“It becomes difficult to build a bullish case when we’ve got a weakened demand component,” said ag risk manager Brad Fuller of Western Horizons in Barnsdall, Oklahoma.

Benchmark CBOT wheat settled up 0.8 per cent at $5.72-3/4 a bushel. December wheat traded up to $5.81-1/2 overnight, briefly crossing above the contract’s 20-day moving average, before falling back down after violence between the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas and Israel escalated.

— Reporting for Reuters by Zachary Goelman in New York City; additional reporting by Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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Wheat futures also dropped as concerns ebbed about shipping grain through the Black Sea.

The most-active Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures fell 1.2 per cent to end at $12.66 a bushel (all figures US$).

Some commercial buyers were likely selling soybean futures to hedge their upcoming purchases from farmers, resulting in pressure on prices, said Jason Ward, managing director of Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis.

“Soybeans are expecting a very big harvest weekend,” he said. “Sometimes you’ll get some selling in prior.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release an update on the progressing corn and soybean harvests on Tuesday at 3 p.m. CT, rather than on Monday due to the U.S. federal holiday.

This week’s report showed the soybean harvest was 23 per cent complete, two points behind an average of analysts’ forecasts.

CBOT December corn dropped 1.1 per cent to $4.92 a bushel after touching $4.99, its highest level in more than a month.

“That $5 (per bushel) level has been a very, very tough level for the market to go through,” Ward said.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released Friday showed speculators still held a massive net short position in corn futures, but had trimmed that position over the week ending Oct. 3.

CBOT December soft red winter wheat dropped 10 cents to settle at $5.68-1/4 a bushel after rallying a day earlier on reports a cargo ship hit a mine in the Black Sea, reviving concerns about the precarious status of exports from war-torn Ukraine.

Reaction to the news subsided on Friday as the vessel suffered only minor damage.

— Reporting for Reuters by Zachary Goelman in New York; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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Corn futures hit a one-month peak, breaking out of a recent range holding above a key technical level, and soybeans rose modestly despite lacklustre export demand.

A Turkish-flagged general cargo ship hit a mine on Thursday in the Black Sea off the coast of Romania and sustained minor damage but the crew was safe, maritime and security sources said.

The Black Sea area has been listed as a high-risk zone by insurers and floating mines remain a peril.

“It looks like the relentless downtrend due to perceptions that Ukraine could move its grain out the door by sea has hit a hiccup,” Charlie Sernatinger, an analyst at Marex Capital, said in a note to clients.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat, which hit a three-year low last week, climbed more than three per cent to settle at $5.78-1/4 a bushel (all figures US$).

The move up put December wheat 1-1/2 cents below its 20-day moving average, a level where prices met sustained technical resistance at every test since early August.

Corn prices saw a similar rally, climbing to their highest levels in more than a month to settle at $4.97-1/2, its highest closing price since Aug. 8.

The contract crossed back above its 50-day moving average for the first time since July 27, a milestone that may have propelled it higher before the settlement.

“That kind of caused a lot of snowball activity in the buying interest and so here we are, up 11 cents, looking pretty darn strong, Pope said.

The rallies in corn and wheat supported gains in the soybean market, but gains were kept in check by reports of better-than-expected yields from the U.S. harvest.

CBOT November soybeans settled up 7-3/4 cents at $12.80-3/4 a bushel.

— Reporting for Reuters by Zachary Goelman in New York City; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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Wheat declined and corn was squeezed between them in what one strategist called a seasonal “bottoming formation” for the U.S. agriculture markets as traders awaited fresh data on harvest and supplies.

Most-active Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures finished up just 1/4 cent to settle at $12.73 per bushel (all figures US$). November soybeans climbed to $12.85 mid-session as a falling U.S. dollar lifted the oilseed’s competitiveness on global markets.

But rising U.S. interest rates may have undercut investor appetites for risk, as yields on the U.S. 30-year Treasury crossed above five per cent for the first time since August 2007.

“I think you’re seeing the funds pull some risk off the table; that means selling beans,” said Scott Harms, a senior agricultural risk specialist with Archer Financial Services in Chicago. “So I think exiting of positions in both soybeans and soybean oil is a big part of that,” he said. December soybean oil futures fell almost two per cent.

CBOT December soft red winter wheat declined nearly 1.5 per cent to end at $5.60, pushed lower by profit-taking.

December corn fell 1-1/2 cents to $4.86 a bushel, consolidating near a three-week high, but not far from lows last seen in December 2020.

“Demand has been a real albatross for the marketplace,” Harms said, adding, “we expect that demand to improve as South American supplies dwindle moving into the winter months.”

Traders will get an update on demand in a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on net export sales due Thursday at 7:30 a.m. CT.

— Reporting for Reuters by Zachary Goelman in New York; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybeans settled down 0.3 per cent at $12.72-3/4 a bushel. Futures had traded down to $12.56-3/4, a three-month low, and one quarter of a cent above the low hit on Dec. 15, 2021.

The drop in soybean prices coincided with a rise in the U.S. dollar, which climbed to a three-month high against the Brazilian real.

“That is impacting our ability to remain competitive in the markets as we see South America put their new crop into the ground at this point,” said Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas.

Soybeans were already under pressure from a report on Monday that farmers in Brazil, the world’s top soybean producer, were planting their new crop at the fastest pace on record for the period.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data on Monday that revealed the current soybean harvest was showing little indication of damage from a hot, dry summer across the U.S. farm belt also weighed on prices. The weekly report pegged the harvest at 23 per cent complete, two percentage points behind expectations.

“Slower harvests tend to make me think it’s taking longer to get into the field and get out of the field,” Zuzolo said. “Why? Because the yields are there, and if not better than expected by the trade,” he said.

Chicago wheat futures rose almost 0.7 per cent to settle at $5.68-1/2 a bushel, extending gains from Monday on bargain-buying after prices fell six per cent to a three-year low on Friday.

U.S. wheat prices have recently been weighed down by abundant Russian supplies and a report of a larger-than-expected U.S. harvest.

The low prices appeared to have lured a rare Chinese purchase of 220,000 metric tonnes of U.S. soft red winter wheat, according to USDA. It marked the first time China had purchased that particular class of wheat from the U.S. since July 2021.

CBOT corn futures ticked lower, falling 1-1/4 cents to settle at $4.87-1/2 a bushel and finding support above the contract’s 40-day moving average.

— Zachary Goelman is a Reuters multimedia reporter in New York City.

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Corn followed wheat higher, but soybeans prices remained low after news reports of Brazilian farmers planting at a rapid clip.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) late Monday pegged the current U.S. corn harvest at 23 per cent complete, compared with 19 per cent at the same point in the prior year. It rated 53 per cent of the current crop good or excellent, unchanged from a week earlier and up a percentage point from the same time in 2022.

Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) most-actively traded wheat contract was up more than four per cent, climbing 23-1/4 cents to end at $5.64-3/4 a bushel (all figures US$). Those gains come after soft red December wheat on Friday hit its lowest level since Sept. 30, 2020 at $5.40.

“We’re seeing some bottom-picking, and technical buying,” said Terry Reilly, the head grains and oilseeds analyst at Marex in Chicago, adding that the buying comes despite a rising U.S. dollar and reports of continued Ukrainian success in moving grain exports by rail and by sea.

Wheat prices had already weakened to their lowest levels since December 2020, pressured by abundant Russian wheat supplies, before USDA last week estimated a larger-than-expected domestic harvest.

Chicago corn chased wheat higher, rising 12 cents, more than 2.5 per cent, to end at $4.88-3/4 a bushel.

Despite the rallies in grains, soybean futures remained largely flat, ending two cents higher at $12.77 a bushel, which Jack Scoville of the Price Futures Group said he suspected was due to an industry report that farmers in Brazil — the world’s top soybean producer — were as of last week planting at the quickest pace ever for the period.

“It looks like it’s going to be a big bumper crop,” Scoville said.

USDA reported the current U.S. soybean harvest at 23 per cent complete, compared with 20 per cent last year. Crop condition had improved, with 52 per cent deemed good or excellent, compared with 50 per cent the prior week, but down from 55 per cent a year ago.

— Reporting for Reuters by Zachary Goelman in New York City; additional reporting by Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Naveen Thukral.

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Soybean futures also closed sharply lower on larger-than-forecast domestic stockpiles, and the drop in both commodities dragged down corn prices.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the nation’s now completed wheat harvest at 1.812 billion bushels, 78 million bushels bigger than a previous estimate and significantly above the average analyst forecast of 1.729 billion bushels in a Reuters poll.

Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures plummeted 6.4 per cent to $5.41-1/2 a bushel and hit the lowest level since Sept. 28, 2020, on a continuous chart (all figures US$).

It was the sharpest single-day percentage point drop since the middle of March 2022, when global grain markets shook off some of the panic-buying following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The wheat balance sheets aren’t nearly as tight as had been indicated,” said Karl Setzer, brokerage research lead for Mid-Co Commodities.

Wheat prices had already been under pressure from ample Russian supplies and signals that Ukraine was managing to find export routes despite Russian attacks on port facilities.

In a separate report, USDA said U.S. wheat stocks as of Sept. 1 stood at 1.78 billion bushels, up slightly from 1.778 billion reported a year earlier and reflecting poor export demand for U.S. supplies.

“It is simply another piece of bad news,” Rich Nelson, chief strategist for Allendale, said of the wheat stocks data.

U.S. soybean stocks fell to their lowest in two years, but were larger than analysts expected. CBOT soybean futures fell 25-1/2 cents to $12.75 a bushel.

“It’s still an extremely tight number,” said Setzer, “but it gives us much more of a cushion going forward than what we had.”

CBOT corn futures followed wheat and soybeans lower, despite USDA data that showed lower than expected corn stockpiles.

Corn fell about 2.4 per cent to $4.76-3/4 a bushel.

— Reporting for Reuters by Zachary Goelman in New York; additional reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago, Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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