The government officials, from Canada, Argentina and Brazil, told Reuters they expect the deal to be concluded in 2026, with one noting that talks were progressing well and could be wrapped up before September.

The Argentine government official said that the agreement is expected to be signed in September or October, marking roughly a year since negotiations formally restarted.

Another diplomat, based in Brazil, also told Reuters negotiations are going at a record speed and extremely well, confirming the countries will probably reach a deal this year.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit Brazil in the next quarter, said this source. Although neither government plans to announce an agreement during the visit, it may serve as a push to finalize one as soon as possible, the source said.

Mercosur’s office in Montevideo and the Canadian trade ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Talks renewed after stall

The renewed momentum follows months of technical exchanges after Canada and Mercosur agreed last year to relaunch the talks that had been stalled since 2021. Mercosur is composed of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, with Bolivia expected to become a full member in 2028.

Canada has intensified efforts to diversify trade amid uncertainty linked to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and South America, especially Brazil, said this source, is a trade partner Canada cannot do without. For Mercosur, a major exporter of beef, soy and minerals, an agreement with Canada would expand access to developed markets and help attract investment in key industries such as mining.

Earlier in March, trade officials from Ontario visited Argentina and Uruguay as part of efforts to lay the groundwork for a future deal and showcase support for increased bilateral trade. Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, Victor Fedeli, met with technology and mining industry representatives as part of the trip, building on a visit to Brazil late last year.

‘Trump acceleration’ effect

Fedeli said Ontario was stepping up outreach to South America partly due to what he called the “Trump acceleration” effect, noting that roughly 80 per cent of the province’s trade is with the United States.

“We’re building on that momentum,” Fedeli said in an interview with Reuters in Montevideo. “The Canadian government is serious about diversifying away from the U.S., working to unlock new opportunities for trade, partnership, and investment,” he added.

The talks with Canada come after Mercosur signed a trade agreement with the European Union in January, following 25 years of negotiations. Earlier this month the European Commission said key trade elements of the accord, which has proven contentious in Europe, will apply on a provisional basis from May 1.

— Additional reporting by Lucila Sigal in Buenos Aires

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The trade alliance between the EU and South America’s Mercosur, comprising Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, will substantially boost trade ties in a region that saw commerce with China soar in recent decades while U.S. influence plummeted.

But even as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration seeks wider regional fealty, South American governments from Brazil to Peru are unlikely to relinquish strengthening ties to China or Europe at a time when they have eclipsed the U.S. in trade in most of the region.

Venezuela raid may have sealed the deal

If anything, several analysts said, Trump’s efforts to flex American power in the region may have helped push past the finish line a trade agreement that suffered numerous delays over two decades of negotiations.

“If credit for this deal goes to anyone, it is to the international context,” said Ignacio Bartesaghi, a foreign policy adviser who has worked with numerous Uruguayan governments over the years. “It goes to Trump’s tariff war, the conflict in Ukraine, to what happened in Venezuela recently.”

Trump’s commando raid to seize Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which set the stage for a more amenable successor government, was the latest of several moves by the U.S. president to sway regional governments.

Last year, Trump threatened to cut off U.S. financial support to Honduras if a conservative candidate did not win the presidential election and conditioned billions of dollars in loans to Argentina on conservatives triumphing in the country’s midterms.

He also used steep tariffs on Brazilian goods to try forcing the country to stop the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a staunch Trump ally.

Voters backed Trump’s choice in both elections. But Bolsonaro was later convicted, and the U.S. government dropped most of the new tariffs against Brazilian products soon after.

“The return of America’s pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere, led by President Trump, is undisputed,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement. “All of the President’s foreign policy actions have restored American strength after four years of weakness under Joe Biden.”

More deals to come

Trump has repeatedly bashed multilateralism and refused to abide by international rules, withdrawing the U.S. from several global pacts and even telling The New York Times last week that he did not need “international law.”

Few countries in Latin America seem to agree.

While Argentine President Javier Milei, one of Trump’s closest allies in the region, praised the U.S.-backed capture of Maduro, his Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno also celebrated the deal with the EU as a victory for “clear rules and freedom.”

Venezuela was a full Mercosur member until its suspension in 2016 for failing to meet trade and human rights commitments.

One Brazilian official close to the presidency, who asked not to be named to discuss private deliberations, called the EU deal a “breath of fresh air” in “the most shameful and negatively critical week for multilateralism in decades.”

The agreement signed this month may also push Mercosur to conclude other trade agreements with Canada and the United Arab Emirates, said Welber Barral, a former Brazilian trade secretary.

“Countries are seeking to create regional rules that can be obeyed, so they won’t depend on the World Trade Organization, which is being discredited by Trump,” Barral said.

The EU-Mercosur deal is just one more example of several being negotiated and signed by countries that were hit with steep tariffs by the Trump administration, such as Indonesia’s trade accord with the European bloc and a pledge between Japan, South Korea and China to increase regional trade.

The deal between Europe and South America shows that many countries want to reinforce global norms, said Margaret Myers, director of the Asia & Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue.

“At a time when the U.S. is breaking from the status quo, parts of Latin America appear to be upholding it,” she said. “It’s a wake-up call for the U.S.”

— Additional reporting By Luciana Magalhaes in Sao Paulo and Ricardo Brito in Brasilia

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After negotiations spanning over 20 years, and five years on from an initial deal, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her Mercosur counterparts announced an agreement had been reached in the Uruguayan capital Montevideo.

“This is a win-win agreement,” von der Leyen said in a press conference in Montevideo alongside the presidents of the main Mercosur nations, including Argentina and Brazil.

“This agreement is not just an economic opportunity, it is a political necessity,” she added. “I know that strong winds are coming in the opposite direction, towards isolation and fragmentation, but this agreement is our near response.”

Facing strong pushback against the deal from France and EU farmers, von der Leyen had flown in on Thursday ahead of the summit of the bloc which includes farming powerhouses Brazil and Argentina as well as Uruguay and Paraguay.

France, the most vociferous critic of the deal in the EU, has branded it as “unacceptable”. Underscoring the obstacles it now faces, French Trade Minister Sophie Primas pledged to resist its next stages, citing environmental and farming concerns.

EU farmers in opposition

European farmers have repeatedly protested against an EU-Mercosur deal that they say would lead to cheap imports of South American commodities, notably beef, that do not meet the EU’s green and food safety standards.

Italy said on Thursday there were no conditions for signing off on a deal. Poland said last week it opposed the free trade deal in its current form.

European green groups also broadly oppose the accord. Friends of the Earth calls it a “climate-wrecking” deal.

Conversely, a group of EU members including Germany and Spain say the deal is vital for the bloc as it looks to diversify its trade after the near-closure of the Russian market and discomfort about reliance on China.

They see Mercosur as a market for EU cars, machinery and chemicals and a potentially reliable source of critical minerals, such as battery metal lithium, required for Europe’s green transition.

They also point to agricultural benefits, given the deal offers greater access and lower tariffs for EU cheeses, ham and wine.

The trade agreement would require approval from 15 of the 27 EU members representing 65 per cent of the EU population along with a simple majority in the European Parliament.

South American negotiators remain optimistic that the EU will eventually give its approval and that France will not be able to rally a blocking minority.

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